Maverick McNealy competes in one of golf's most prestigious events: the 2026 PGA Championship, a major tournament attracting the world's top-ranked players. At 3% implied probability, traders are pricing McNealy as a significant longshot among a large field, suggesting they expect higher-ranked competitors to emerge victorious. The market resolves when the championship concludes based on official PGA Tour results, creating a clear binary outcome. Major championships typically feature 150+ competitors, where only one golfer wins and nearly all others lose—a structure naturally producing long odds for deeper-field entries. The modest trading volume reflects limited conviction in McNealy's chances, typical for players competing in major championships dominated by elite performers. Tracking his path to victory requires monitoring recent tournament finishes, current playing form, and any preparation updates leading into the event.
What factors could move this market?
Maverick McNealy has competed as a professional golfer on the PGA Tour, competing alongside thousands of tour-level competitors annually. The PGA Championship, held each year, represents one of golf's four major tournaments and attracts the sport's most accomplished players, many ranking within the world's top 50. Major championships create inherently challenging odds for any individual competitor—winning requires excelling across 72 holes, typically played over four consecutive days, while outperforming a field of elite professionals. McNealy's 3% implied probability reflects positioning him outside the frontrunners and recent tournament winners likely receiving substantially higher odds allocations in the market. For McNealy to achieve victory, he would need sustained excellence in ball-striking, short-game precision, and mental composure across multiple rounds under pressure—factors that historical data suggest favor established champions and top-ranked players. Factors theoretically supporting an upset could include recent strong tournament performances, course characteristics matching his technical strengths, or psychological advantage from low expectations. Conversely, the strong probability leaning toward "No" reflects the field's overall strength. Major championship history shows that elite players and recent tournament winners capture the overwhelming majority of titles, a pattern consistent with 3% odds pricing McNealy as an unlikely victor among higher-probability contenders. The modest trading volume on this contract suggests traders have directed capital toward higher-probability outcomes, reflecting rational assessment that other golfers present more favorable risk-reward propositions in this championship.
What are traders watching for?
Championship spans May 16-19, 2026, with McNealy needing to win outright across all four rounds and 72 holes against elite competition.
Recent tournament results matter—monitor McNealy's last three starts for form, consistency, and any technical improvements heading into the major.
Field strength and weather conditions will influence scoring difficulty; track course setup, rainfall, wind forecasts affecting all players' performances.
Top-ranked golfer participation and any injury withdrawals reshape field composition and competitive dynamics throughout the championship.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on 2026-05-18 based on official PGA Championship results. McNealy must win the tournament outright; any other finish, including second place, resolves to No.
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