Obsession is slated to open at the US box office on May 17-19, 2026, a typically strong weekend for theatrical releases. The film's opening weekend box office performance hinges on audience interest, marketing penetration, and competitive landscape at that time. At current 1% YES odds, traders overwhelmingly expect the film to fall outside the $11-13 million range—either significantly outperforming or underperforming that projection. A $11-13M opening would position the film as a modest performer, suggesting moderate audience turnout but not blockbuster status. The market's lean suggests traders see either much stronger (blockbuster trajectory) or much weaker (below-expected) performance. Historical context for mid-sized theatrical releases shows high variance in opening weekends, with outcomes depending heavily on critical reception, franchise familiarity, and word-of-mouth factors. The approaching May 18 resolution date means real-world box office data will arrive immediately after opening weekend reporting.
What factors could move this market?
Obsession enters the theatrical marketplace during May, a traditionally strong season for studio releases but also a period of elevated competition with multiple films vying for audience attention and screen allocation. Understanding the $11-13 million opening weekend range requires examining the specific conditions under which a theatrical release achieves this particular outcome level, a band that represents neither clear success nor obvious failure. Historically, films opening in this narrow range span a wide spectrum: from well-received indie films that built strong audience word-of-mouth momentum pre-release, to mainstream releases that underperformed initial studio expectations despite reasonable budgets, to genre films that found dedicated but numerically modest audiences within niche demographics. The narrow $2 million band encompasses films with fundamentally different trajectories and long-term theatrical prospects. Factors that could push Obsession toward the YES outcome ($11-13M) include a balanced critical reception that neither strongly endorses nor condemns the film, releasing against lighter competition than anticipated, or targeting a specific demographic slice that drives concentrated turnout during the opening weekend. Films opening at this level often benefit from strong reviews in specialized publications, positive user ratings on aggregator sites that drive weekend conversions, and minimal negative social media backlash that might suppress day-two or day-three repeat business. A $12M opening might result from solid preview screenings that indicate stable audience appetite without explosive franchise-driven demand. Conversely, factors pushing against the YES outcome include critical panning that suppresses opening-day ticket sales, stronger-than-expected competition from other releases claiming screen share and audience attention, or weak pre-release marketing penetration that constrains awareness. Films falling below $11M typically suffered from unfavorable reviews, weak social media sentiment, or insufficient differentiation in a crowded market, while films exceeding $13M generally benefited from franchise recognition, bankable star appeal, or unexpectedly strong critical reception that drove robust conversions. The 1% trader probability suggests near-certainty that Obsession will either significantly outperform or underperform the $11-13M band, a conviction distribution that reveals trader assessment that the film has clear attributes pointing toward either stronger success or meaningful underperformance relative to this range.
What are traders watching for?
Opening weekend box office figures release May 19-20, 2026, determining market outcome within 48 hours of release.
Critical score aggregators like Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic influence opening-day ticket conversions and audience momentum.
Competing theatrical releases and total market attendance that weekend affect Obsession's share of box office revenue.
Social media sentiment and user reviews posted Friday-Sunday shape Tuesday reporting expectations.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Obsession's opening weekend box office total (Friday-Sunday) falls between $11 million and $13 million. Resolution occurs on May 19-20, 2026, when official weekend box office figures are reported.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
