'Obsession,' a new theatrical release opening this weekend, has already attracted significant trading activity as prediction market participants assess its opening weekend performance. The market is asking whether the film will earn less than $9 million during its first three days — a threshold that would indicate a weak box office start for a wide or moderately-scaled release. With current odds at 0% YES, traders overwhelmingly expect the film to exceed $9 million, suggesting confidence in its opening weekend take. The resolution is straightforward: weekend box office figures will be tallied from Friday through Sunday and compared against the $9 million line. This threshold is noteworthy because it sits in a zone where outcomes split between breakout success and modest underperformance. The trading volume of $1,008 and liquidity of $12,264 reflect moderate but active interest, typical for culture-sector predictions during opening weekends. The market will close on May 18 at midnight UTC, after weekend estimates typically surface from industry trackers like Box Office Mojo. Traders' apparent conviction that 'Obsession' will clear $9 million speaks to either strong presale data, positive sentiment in entertainment circles, or a production that's larger in scope than a limited release.
What factors could move this market?
'Obsession' arrives into the May 2026 theatrical marketplace, a period historically strong for entertainment releases but increasingly fragmented across streaming platforms and competing theatrical options. The film represents a new entry at a time when audience box office behavior has stabilized into new patterns post-pandemic, with opening weekends remaining among the most data-driven and predictable box office metrics. The $9 million threshold sits in an interesting zone: above what limited indie releases typically achieve but below mainstream tentpole expectations, suggesting 'Obsession' is a moderately-budgeted or specialized theatrical release seeking mainstream appeal. Historical context shows that May openings for films in this budget tier typically range widely — from sub-$5M weak starts to mid-teen-million breakouts — depending on genre, cast, marketing spend, and competitive landscape. For comparison, recent years have seen specialty and mid-budget dramas open in the $8M-$12M range depending on festival buzz, critical reception, and audience demographics. The $9M line is neither an exceptionally high bar nor a gimme; it represents a meaningful threshold between modest underperformance and solid opening. Factors pushing toward YES (below $9M) include weak presale metrics, negative critical reviews, poor audience scores, or crushing competition from established franchises opening the same weekend. Box office analysts consistently note that opening weekends are highly sensitive to first-day momentum and word-of-mouth; a soft Friday often cannot recover by Sunday. Limited marketing visibility or a crowded theatrical lineup could compress 'Obsession' into sub-$9M territory. Conversely, factors supporting NO (above $9M) include strong advanced buzz, celebrity draw, positive critical consensus, favorable audience reception, or a less competitive weekend frame. Presales, industry tracking reports, and social media momentum typically offer early signals; studios often leak positive indicators to drive opening-weekend confidence. The market's current 0% YES odds is striking and suggests traders have encountered specific signals pointing toward a confident $9M+ opening. This could reflect studio-shared projections, presale data, or trade reporting indicating strong momentum. The theatrical context matters significantly — whether 'Obsession' is a wide release (2,500+ theaters), moderate release (1,000-2,000 theaters), or limited expansion would substantially influence its opening potential. Wide releases rarely fall below $9M unless facing exceptional headwinds. Such extreme market confidence warrants scrutiny: either the data is genuinely one-sided, or this represents a crowded short position vulnerable to surprise underperformance.
What are traders watching for?
Friday night box office totals released May 17 evening — early indicator of weekend trajectory and consumer demand.
Final weekend totals published May 19 by Box Office Mojo and industry trackers; market resolves Sunday midnight UTC.
Competitive releases opening same weekend may impact 'Obsession' screen count and audience split.
Critical reviews and audience ratings released before/during opening weekend; sentiment shifts can move last-minute ticket sales.
Presale data, social media trends, and industry tracking reports; early signals often forecast final weekend outcome.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 18, 2026 at midnight UTC based on final opening weekend box office totals reported by Box Office Mojo and major industry trackers. The outcome is YES if 'Obsession' earns less than $9 million Friday through Sunday; NO if it earns $9 million or more.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
