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Ulsan, South Korea's fifth-largest metropolitan area and a major industrial hub located on the southeastern coast, will hold its mayoral election on June 3, 2026. Park Maeng-woo, a prominent political figure in Korean politics, currently faces 0% odds in prediction markets—a striking price that reflects deep market conviction against his candidacy. The market's assessment suggests either strong public polling data, a formal withdrawal or disqualification, or significant political barriers that traders believe eliminate any realistic path to victory. This is a hard-resolved outcome: the winner will be formally announced by Ulsan's electoral commission, and the market settles definitively on June 3 based on official results. The 0% odds trajectory shows no recovery or volatility since market inception, indicating sustained and unanimous trader consensus rather than shifting sentiment. Ulsan elections carry national significance given the city's industrial base and population; local races in South Korea often involve major political realignment. Understanding why Park faces such consensus-level long odds requires examining his current political standing, recent developments in Ulsan electoral dynamics, and the composition of the announced candidate field.
What factors could move this market?
Park Maeng-woo has been a significant figure in South Korean politics, with a political career spanning multiple terms in local and national positions. His precise standing heading into the 2026 Ulsan mayoral race—and the reasons for his 0% odds—likely relate to one or more structural barriers. Possible explanations include formal disqualification due to legal proceedings or conviction, a public announcement that he is not running or is withdrawing from the race, severe health issues, or overwhelming polling evidence that his base has collapsed entirely. In South Korean electoral contexts, criminal convictions or ongoing investigations can legally bar candidates or dramatically diminish their viability, and the prediction market's 0% price may reflect certainty about one of these factors.
Ulsan's political landscape has historically been shaped by labor movements, industrial policy, and regional loyalty patterns. The city's economy depends heavily on automotive, petrochemical, and shipbuilding sectors, making labor relations and industry policy central to local campaigns. Park's political career was built on either alignment with or opposition to these industrial constituencies, and any shift in labor sentiment or regional political realignment could severely damage his candidacy. The 0% odds suggest that traders believe a competing candidate or candidates have consolidated support, or that Park's historical base has fundamentally shifted away from him.
For odds to reach 0%, the market requires near-certainty that Park will not win. This could stem from announced retirement or formal withdrawal, in which case NO odds reach certainty by definition; legal disqualification confirmed by South Korean electoral authorities; public polling showing him at 1-3% support with other major candidates consolidated above 40%; or a combination of the above. The complete absence of volatility in the 0% price—no movement toward 1-2% even amid campaign noise—suggests the market has resolved the binary cognitively, treating Park's non-victory as already determined.
From a trader conviction angle, 0% odds imply either traders have access to information that Park will not run or has been disqualified, or the prediction market was offered at a skewed opening price and failed to attract arbitrage. More likely, the market reflects real information asymmetry—perhaps regulatory or legal developments not yet widely reported—that eliminates Park's pathway. Historically, South Korean local elections have seen surprise upsets and late entrant surges, but the 0% price suggests this market views Park's race as fundamentally non-competitive, his involvement either null or impossible.
Key factors to watch include any electoral commission announcements regarding Park's candidacy status, the official candidate list publication date, and announcements from major alternative candidates or party endorsements in Ulsan. Late-stage developments such as a major endorsement from a national political party or an unexpected legal ruling could theoretically shift odds, but the complete consensus at 0% suggests such reversals are not expected by traders.
What are traders watching for?
Candidate registration deadline approaching in early May 2026 — Park's formal candidacy filing or withdrawal announcement
Electoral commission official publication of the final approved candidate list for Ulsan's 2026 mayoral race
Election day June 3, 2026 — official vote count and final electoral commission tabulation triggers market settlement outcome
Any legal decisions or regulatory rulings that might affect Park Maeng-woo's candidate eligibility status before the election
Major national political party endorsements or campaign announcements and activities specifically targeting Ulsan voters and regional dynamics
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Park Maeng-woo is declared the winner of Ulsan's mayoral election on June 3, 2026, by official electoral commission announcement. NO otherwise.
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