The 2026 PGA Championship is one of professional golf's four major championships, contested annually by the world's top players. Patrick Cantlay, a PGA Tour regular with multiple wins on tour, is competing in this year's event. At 1% odds, the prediction market reflects traders' assessment that Cantlay is an extreme longshot to claim the title this week. The market pricing suggests strong consensus around other contenders, with the top favorites likely commanding significant backing. This odds level is typical for players without recent major championship momentum or those who historically underperform at major events. The event concludes May 18, 2026, making this a rapidly resolving market as the tournament progresses into its final rounds. The 1% price implies roughly 100-to-1 odds, assigned to outcomes with very low historical probability.
What factors could move this market?
Patrick Cantlay is an accomplished PGA Tour professional with multiple victories on the circuit and a strong overall record in competitive golf. Despite his consistent play, Cantlay has not captured a major championship during his career, a distinction shared by many excellent players who nonetheless fall short of the sport's highest levels of achievement. The 2026 PGA Championship is being contested as golf's second major of the year, bringing together the world's elite players to compete for one of sport's most prestigious titles. The field includes major championship winners, players with recent strong form, and several international stars, all competing under the pressure-packed circumstances that characterize major championship golf. The prediction market's 1% odds for Cantlay reflect the collective judgment of traders who have assessed the likelihood of his victory. At this pricing level, the market is effectively saying that while Cantlay is capable of playing excellent golf, the probability he outplays dozens of other world-class competitors over four rounds is very low. For Cantlay to win at current odds, he would need to string together near-perfect rounds while other contenders struggle relative to expectations. Historical data on major championships shows that when a player is priced at 1%, it's typically because they lack recent form relative to the field, are recovering from injury, or have a poor historical record at that particular event. What could push the market toward YES? An unexpectedly hot scoring streak from Cantlay, particularly if he gains confidence early in the tournament and carries momentum into the weekend. If several of the favorites stumble with poor rounds, Cantlay's odds of making ground could improve. Course conditions favoring his particular strengths or a field-wide elevation in scoring could also help. Conversely, factors pushing toward NO include the simple fact that the PGA Championship typically attracts the strongest field in golf, making any single player's victory highly unlikely. If Cantlay's opening rounds are mediocre relative to leaders, the market would likely reprice him even lower. Major championships also have a way of favoring players with recent big-event victories, something not currently in Cantlay's favor. The current 1% odds reflect the market's base rate assessment: given the field strength, Cantlay's historical major championship record, and typical variance in professional golf outcomes, traders assign him minimal probability of victory.
What are traders watching for?
Patrick Cantlay's opening-round score relative to leaders; strong play early could trigger odds repricing
Performance by top favorites; if multiple contenders struggle, field tightens and Cantlay's odds improve
Weather and course conditions throughout the tournament; dry greens or high-scoring environment changes dynamics
Cantlay's historical PGA Championship performance; major events show course-specific form patterns over time
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Patrick Cantlay finishes with the lowest score at the 2026 PGA Championship by the tournament's conclusion on May 18, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
