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Rick Caruso, a billionaire Los Angeles real estate developer and philanthropist, previously ran for the city's mayoral office in 2022 but lost to Karen Bass. With Los Angeles facing significant challenges around homelessness, public safety, and municipal spending, questions linger about potential challengers in the 2026 election cycle. The Los Angeles mayoral election is scheduled for June 2, 2026, making it clearly resolvable based on official LA County election results. The market currently prices Caruso's chances at 0% odds, reflecting deep trader skepticism about a potential victory despite his previous high-profile campaign. This flat pricing suggests traders believe either that Caruso will not run again after his 2022 loss, or that if he does, he faces insurmountable structural headwinds. The lack of upward price movement since market open indicates sustained conviction that his path to victory remains blocked. Key variables for traders monitoring this race include whether Caruso announces a candidacy, how Karen Bass's approval ratings evolve under her governing record, and whether crime or homelessness metrics deteriorate significantly. Whether this reflects Caruso's divisiveness, Bass's incumbent advantage, or simply trader assessment of local political dynamics remains an open question for those tracking the 2026 LA mayoral race.
What factors could move this market?
Rick Caruso built his political profile over decades as one of Los Angeles's most prominent real estate developers and philanthropists. His 2022 mayoral bid was his first electoral race and drew strong early support from wealthy donors and conservative-leaning voters concerned about crime and homelessness. However, Caruso lost narrowly to then-City Council member Karen Bass, who assembled a coalition centered on progressive politics and anti-police-reform messaging. Bass's victory in 2022 marked a significant ideological shift for the city, and her first term has been marked by aggressive homelessness initiatives, police reform efforts, and an expanded city budget. The 2026 election will be an early test of whether her governing record is popular enough to withstand a rematch. A potential Caruso rematch scenario would require him to re-enter the race and overcome several structural obstacles. Caruso's 2022 loss was definitive enough that he has not publicly signaled another run, and his business empire demands significant personal attention. Should he run, he would face higher name recognition but also a record of defeat and potential fatigue among the donor base that funded his 2022 campaign. Arguments favoring a Caruso win rest on deteriorating public perceptions of homelessness and crime if those issues worsen under Bass's policies. A sharp spike in street homelessness, visible disorder in downtown Los Angeles, or a high-profile safety crisis could erode Bass support and create an opening for a law-and-order candidate. Additionally, a fractured Democratic primary field could theoretically split progressive votes and benefit a Caruso strategy. Conversely, multiple factors cut against a Caruso victory. Karen Bass as an incumbent has structural advantages: name recognition, access to city resources, and a broad coalition. The Democratic tilt of Los Angeles—with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans roughly 2-to-1—favors Bass or another progressive challenger. Caruso's 2022 messaging has aged; his campaign relied partly on opposition to vaccine mandates and other pandemic-era policies no longer salient. Furthermore, if Caruso does not enter the race, the market logically resolves no. The 0% odds could reflect trader expectations that Caruso simply will not run, making victory mathematically impossible. The Los Angeles mayoral election offers a concrete resolution event with minimal ambiguity—official results will determine the winner on June 2, 2026. The persistent 0% odds suggest traders have already priced in a Caruso loss or non-candidacy scenario, possibly underestimating the probability of policy deterioration that could revive his electoral appeal.
What are traders watching for?
Los Angeles homelessness and crime statistics from 2025–2026; data releases tracking street encampments and violent crime rates will inform race dynamics.
Karen Bass's approval rating and governance record through mid-2026; public satisfaction with city services and safety initiatives shapes baseline support.
Rick Caruso's explicit announcement or non-announcement regarding a 2026 run; his decision determines whether the race scenario is even viable.
Democratic primary field composition; if multiple candidates splinter progressive support, Caruso could improve odds despite being a non-traditional nominee.
Early polling or endorsement patterns; union support, philanthropic circles, and community organization backing will signal potential viability.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Rick Caruso wins the official Los Angeles mayoral election on June 2, 2026. Market resolves NO if any other candidate wins or if the election does not occur as scheduled.
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