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Colombia's 2026 presidential election will take place on June 21, 2026, determining the country's next leader for a four-year term. Roy Barreras, a prominent Colombian politician and former senator with deep roots in Liberal Party politics, is among the candidates in this race. However, the prediction market currently prices his winning chances at 0%, indicating that traders view him as extremely unlikely to secure the presidency. This assessment reflects broader perceptions about the competitive field, polling trends, and the political landscape heading into the election. The 0% odds don't necessarily mean Barreras has zero mathematical chance—rather, they reflect market participants' strong conviction that other candidates are substantially more viable. The Colombian electoral system requires a candidate to win an outright majority of the vote in the first round, or face a runoff between the top two finishers. Barreras's current price reflects skepticism about his ability to gain sufficient electoral support to compete with stronger frontrunners in this crowded field.
What factors could move this market?
Roy Barreras has been a prominent figure in Colombian politics for several decades, serving as a senator and building a political base within the Liberal Party tradition. However, the 2026 Colombian presidential election represents a highly competitive race where multiple strong candidates are vying to lead Latin America's third-largest economy. The prediction market's assignment of 0% odds to Barreras reflects trader assessments that he faces insurmountable obstacles in the current political environment. For Barreras to become a viable contender, his campaign would need to overcome substantial structural headwinds. He would need to dramatically shift voter perceptions, consolidate support from multiple political constituencies, and differentiate himself in a fragmented political landscape where multiple parties and independent candidates are competing for overlapping voter coalitions. Colombia's political economy in 2026 is shaped by incumbent President Gustavo Petro's administration, ongoing economic challenges, persistent security concerns, and substantive debates about social policy direction. While Barreras maintains respect within certain political circles, current polling data and market sentiment suggest he is not positioned as a leading voice addressing these critical issues. The 0% odds reflect trader conviction that even among his strongest potential base of supporters, belief in his general election viability is minimal. Historical patterns in Colombian elections demonstrate that the field typically consolidates around a small number of frontrunning candidates by election day, often leaving secondary candidates with minimal vote share. For Barreras to move from 0% odds toward positive territory, he would require catalytic shifts in the political environment—such as major endorsements from established power brokers, unexpected scandals affecting top competitors, a major policy moment that elevates his profile, or a fundamental reassessment of the electoral landscape. Traders following this market would monitor for any campaign developments suggesting momentum for Barreras, though current pricing reflects skepticism that meaningful movement will occur. The technical aspect of ultra-low odds markets is notable: even a move from 0% to 1-2% would constitute a significant repricing and would likely signal meaningful campaign developments that had previously been discounted by market participants.
What are traders watching for?
June 21, 2026 election day—watch for first-round results showing whether Barreras achieves sufficient vote share
Campaign announcement or major endorsement that could shift Barreras momentum and expand his voter coalition
Monthly polling releases through May and June tracking real-time shifts in candidate preference and electoral viability
Any unexpected scandal or controversy involving top candidates that might create opportunity for secondary candidates
Runoff scenario formation if no candidate wins outright majority, potentially reshaping Barreras's competitive position
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Roy Barreras wins the Colombian presidential election on June 21, 2026, either in the first round by winning an outright majority of votes or in a potential runoff between the top two candidates.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
