Will Seoul receive less than 40mm of precipitation in April? Current YES odds: 92%. Trade this weather forecast on the live prediction market.
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Seoul's April precipitation is a measurable weather event with clear resolution criteria. The market trades whether Seoul will receive less than 40mm throughout the month, resolving April 30. At 92% YES odds, traders strongly expect a drier spring for South Korea's capital. Historically, Seoul's April average is around 57mm, making the 40mm threshold represent below-normal precipitation. The current trading price reflects seasonal weather patterns indicating stable, dry conditions for the period. This aligns with Seoul's typical spring-to-early-summer transition, where rainfall typically accelerates in May and June as monsoon systems approach. The 92% YES probability indicates market participants view significant April rainfall as unlikely, confidently expecting the month to conclude under 40mm at Seoul's official weather station.
Seoul's April precipitation patterns are shaped by the broader East Asian monsoon system and seasonal weather dynamics. The city sits between cold continental air from the north and warm maritime systems from the south, where spring represents a transition zone. At 92% YES odds, the market reflects strong trader conviction that April will remain relatively dry, driven by Seoul's typical spring pattern where major rainfall systems remain dormant before intensifying in late April and May. The city's April average is approximately 57mm, though year-to-year variability is substantial. Factors supporting YES (sub-40mm) outcomes include the typical absence of strong frontal systems in early-to-mid April and the delayed arrival of pre-monsoon moisture patterns that typically intensify later in spring. High-pressure system dominance early in the month would suppress cloud development and precipitation. The 40mm threshold represents roughly the 20th percentile of historical April totals, a notably dry scenario but within seasonal norms. Factors pushing toward NO (higher precipitation) include unexpected low-pressure system passages crossing the peninsula, unusual Pacific moisture intensification, or early-arriving frontal systems associated with the advancing monsoon. April has historically been affected by such systems in minority years. Historical records show April precipitation in Seoul varies considerably, ranging from around 25mm to over 100mm depending on system activity. The 92% YES odds imply traders see very low probability of the additional 20+ millimeters needed to exceed 40mm. This spread reflects confidence in seasonal stability. The market prices in baseline expectations that major precipitation events will not occur and that April will conclude drier than average, suggesting participants view the 2026 outlook as favorable to high-pressure dominance rather than moisture-laden storm systems. The remaining 8% NO allocation represents tail risks of unexpected pattern shifts that meteorologists would consider lower-probability for this period.
The market resolves YES if total precipitation recorded at Seoul's official Korea Meteorological Administration station falls below 40mm for April 2026. Resolution occurs on April 30, 2026 based on final official precipitation measurements.
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