The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a key driver of economic conditions. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to each other overnight. The Fed sets a target range for this rate, which currently sits in a higher band as the Fed has been raising rates since 2022 to combat inflation. This market asks whether the Fed's lower bound—the bottom of their target range—will reach 2.75% or below before the end of 2026. The Fed's policy decisions are based on inflation trends, employment data, and economic growth forecasts. Rate cuts are typically signaled through forward guidance and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, which occur roughly every six weeks. The question is resolvable by examining official Fed announcements and the target range they announce. At 15% odds, the market implies a low probability of rate cuts deep enough to bring the lower bound to 2.75% or below in the next nine months. This reflects market expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates for an extended period, though recent economic data could shift this trajectory.