Amsterdam's May 17 weather will be evaluated against a precise meteorological threshold: whether the day's highest temperature remains at 10°C or below. This straightforward measurement-based question resolves through official weather data, making it objectively verifiable and free from ambiguity. The prediction market currently prices the YES outcome at exactly 0%, which represents an unusually stark reflection of trader conviction. The collective market view suggests traders expect temperatures to comfortably exceed the 10°C threshold by a considerable margin. Amsterdam in mid-May typically experiences spring weather with daytime highs averaging between 17 and 20 degrees Celsius. The exceptionally low odds suggest the broader trading community either expects normal seasonal conditions or warmer-than-typical weather, both scenarios well above the 10°C ceiling. The 0% odds effectively communicate that this trading population views a maximum temperature of 10°C or below as virtually impossible for this date, reflecting the rarity of such conditions during May in the Netherlands.
What factors could move this market?
Amsterdam's weather on May 17, 2026, becomes a prediction market question because mid-May represents a critical transitional period in the Northern Hemisphere. While late spring theoretically allows for variable weather, the city sits at 52°N latitude where May temperatures have shown increasingly consistent warming trends over recent decades. Historically, Amsterdam's May average highs range from 17 to 20 degrees Celsius, with overnight lows between 9 and 12 degrees. A maximum temperature of 10°C or below would represent a cold snap approximately 7 to 10 degrees below normal for the season—a meteorologically significant deviation. Such conditions last occurred during May 2017 and May 2013, when unusual Arctic influences temporarily suppressed temperatures. These historical precedents are relevant context, yet climate data suggests such events are becoming less frequent as regional warming accelerates. The factors that could push the outcome toward YES include an unexpected Arctic cold outbreak, an upper-level trough bringing polar air masses southward, or persistent cloud cover combined with cool maritime influences from the North Sea. Jet stream behavior in mid-May can occasionally stall anomalously cold patterns over Western Europe, though such scenarios represent genuine outliers in modern climate patterns. Conversely, the overwhelming likelihood reflected in the 0% odds derives from multiple factors pushing temperatures well above 10°C. Late spring solar angle, increasing daylight hours, and accumulated surface heating all drive upward temperature trends. Climate models consistently forecast above-normal temperatures across Northern Europe for May 2026. Ocean temperatures in the North Sea are running warm relative to historical averages, which typically suppresses cold-air advection and supports mild conditions. The market's 0% valuation reflects rational assessment of probability distributions. Traders are pricing in the knowledge that May in Amsterdam almost never produces maximum temperatures at or below 10°C in the modern climate record. The extreme illiquidity at this price point suggests no meaningful contrarian position exists—no traders believe cold-snap scenarios warrant capital allocation. This consensus aligns with seasonal climatology, recent warming trends, and deterministic weather models.
What are traders watching for?
Official Amsterdam weather station final May 17 high-temperature reading released May 18, 2026 resolves the market.
European weather model consensus through May 17 will indicate whether polar air masses reach Western Europe.
North Atlantic jet stream behavior in the days preceding May 17 drives temperature trajectory.
Sea surface temperatures across the North Sea currently run warm, suppressing cold air advection mechanisms.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on official Amsterdam weather station data for May 17's high temperature, reported on or shortly after May 18, 2026. YES if maximum temperature is 10°C or below; NO if it exceeds that threshold.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
