This market tracks whether Ankara's maximum temperature on May 2, 2026 will reach precisely 12°C—a notably specific and granular weather threshold to trade. At 1% odds, traders strongly doubt this exact temperature will occur, reflecting the fundamental reality that precise temperature matches are exceptionally rare events in granular weather prediction markets. Ankara, the capital city of Turkey located on the Anatolian plateau at approximately 900 meters elevation, experiences variable and sometimes volatile spring weather patterns. May highs in the region typically range from 20°C to 28°C depending on prevailing weather systems, cold fronts, and regional microclimates. A high of 12°C would represent a substantial cold anomaly—roughly 12 degrees below the seasonal normal for May and well outside typical spring conditions. The market's resolution depends on official temperature readings from Turkish meteorological services, recorded at standard measurement stations in Ankara on May 2. The current price at 1% implies extreme skepticism about hitting this specific threshold, suggesting traders expect either significantly warmer spring conditions or view the statistical probability of exact temperature matching as too low to justify higher odds.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Ankara, Turkey's capital and the country's second-largest city by population, sits at approximately 900 meters elevation on the Anatolian plateau in central Turkey. This geographic position creates a distinct climate pattern characterized by cold, dry winters and warm, dry summers, with spring serving as a volatile transitional season between these extremes. Typical May highs in Ankara range from 20°C to 28°C, with climatological averages around 24°C based on decades of meteorological observations. A temperature maximum of exactly 12°C would represent a dramatic departure from normal—roughly 12 degrees below the seasonal expectation—and would place the day in the lower range of late autumn or early winter conditions. Such an outcome would require significant synoptic meteorological disturbances: a powerful polar cold front descending unusually far southward from Russia and Eastern Europe, coupled with the displacement of warming Mediterranean influences, or an unexpected reversal of typical May warming systems. The 1% odds reflect near-universal trader skepticism about this specific threshold. Spring weather in Turkey demonstrates notable variability as competing air masses clash: cold continental polar air from the north and warm Mediterranean influences from the south create episodic temperature swings across the region. These swings typically range 5-8°C from day to day during spring, but a drop to 12°C would require an extreme meteorological scenario beyond typical spring variability. However, the broader climate trend across the eastern Mediterranean and Anatolia region shows increasing warming over recent decades, with above-normal temperatures becoming more common and cold anomalies becoming rarer. A 12°C reading would be not merely unlikely but meteorologically surprising, representing a cold anomaly of the sort that occurs perhaps once per decade or less frequently in this region. Traders at 1% odds are incorporating multiple analytical factors: the statistical rarity of exact temperature matches in binary weather prediction markets, the expectation of typical or above-normal May conditions in Ankara, the absence of extreme weather forecasts in standard meteorological outlooks from Turkish weather services, the broader warming trend in the region, and the prior probability distribution based on Ankara's historical climate data. The minimal trading activity ($839 volume, $5,213 liquidity) typical of granular daily weather markets reflects the niche appeal of exact-temperature markets, which attract only sophisticated weather traders and climate enthusiasts willing to accept the high specificity and narrow resolution criteria inherent to this market type.
