Global temperature records have shown a consistent warming trend over recent decades, with 2023 and 2025 ranking among the hottest years on record. The question of whether 2026 will become the second-hottest year reflects ongoing climate dynamics shaped by natural cycles and human activity. This market resolves based on official global temperature data released by major scientific organizations like NASA, NOAA, or the World Meteorological Organization, which compare 2026's annual mean temperature against historical records. At 53% odds, traders believe there's a meaningful but not overwhelming probability that 2026 will rank second, suggesting some uncertainty about whether natural cooling cycles or other factors might prevent it from reaching the top-two position. The odds trajectory has been relatively stable, indicating the market is fairly balanced between those expecting 2026 to rank very high in temperature records and those predicting alternative outcomes.