Atlanta in early May typically experiences moderate spring temperatures, with highs often ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s Fahrenheit. This market asks whether the city's peak temperature on May 2, 2026 will fall within the narrow band of 76-77°F—a specific range that constrains two consecutive single-degree increments. At current YES odds of just 1%, the trading market implies strong conviction that the actual high will fall outside this range, either lower (below 76°F) or higher (above 77°F). Such narrow temperature ranges are inherently volatile to predict given weather system uncertainty and urban microclimatic variation. The market suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler day driven by a weather system or a warmer than average spring day. This is a daily recurring market, reflecting the inherent resolution clarity—the high temperature is objectively measured and publicly reported by the National Weather Service Atlanta office. The extreme illiquidity at $5.6K and sparse trading volume indicate this is a niche prediction market primarily for weather enthusiasts or algorithmic traders testing weather prediction models.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Atlanta's climate in May transitions between spring and early summer, with the National Weather Service documenting mean highs around 80°F for the first week of May historically. The question narrows this into a precise 76-77°F band, which represents approximately one standard deviation below the typical mean for the season. May 2 falls just after spring equinox cooling effects have typically dissipated in Georgia, and as the region begins its warming trend toward summer solstice. The National Weather Service Atlanta maintains the official observation station that ultimately resolves all Georgia weather markets; this station is located at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, where readings are standardized and publicly archived.
Factors favoring YES (76-77°F range): A cold front system moving through the Southeast on May 1-2 could suppress maximum temperatures below normal seasonal values. Clear skies overnight into May 2 following such a front passage would limit solar warming. A persistent upper-level low pressure system stalled over the Southeast would also prevent warming. Historically, May can see several days where Atlantic storm systems push temperatures down—the database of May-2 historical highs shows occasional readings in the 72-78°F range when frontal systems dominate.
Factors favoring NO (outside this range): High pressure ridging from the Atlantic or Gulf typically accelerates warming in May, especially as days grow longer. If the preceding May 1 is warm, momentum from accumulated surface heat tends to produce higher highs on May 2. A dry pattern with abundant sunshine would push temperatures toward 80+°F, well above the market's narrow band. Current atmospheric models run on May 1, 2026 will show either frontal progression (YES catalyst) or high-pressure ridge continuation (NO catalyst); these forecast tracks carry uncertainty extending 24-36 hours out.
Historical May-2 temperature records for Atlanta show highs ranging from 59°F (1970, unusually cold system) to 91°F (2019, rare early heat wave). The 76-77°F range sits comfortably within the interquartile range of historical distributions, yet represents a narrow target within broader possibilities. The current 1% odds reflect traders' assessment that the range is too narrow relative to typical daily variance around the seasonal mean. Weather prediction models themselves rarely output confidence above 70-80% for specific multi-degree ranges 24+ hours in advance, suggesting the market's extreme bearishness on this range may be justified.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service official May 2 high-temperature reading at Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson airport observation station
Frontal system evolution: whether Atlantic storm system exits Southeast before May 2 morning warming begins
May 1 baseline temperature and overnight radiative cooling patterns affecting May 2 early-morning conditions
Market resolves based on the National Weather Service Atlanta official maximum temperature reading on May 2, 2026. YES wins if the high is exactly 76°F or 77°F; all other values resolve NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
