The Austin, Texas prediction market for May 2, 2026 asks whether the day's highest temperature will fall between 60-61°F—an extraordinarily narrow and cool range for early May in central Texas. Historically, Austin's average high in early May is around 85°F, with typical daily highs ranging from 80-92°F depending on weather patterns. For the high to reach only 60-61°F would require either a severe cold snap, an unusually strong cold front, or unseasonably wet conditions that suppress daytime heating. The market currently prices YES odds at 0%, reflecting trader consensus that such a cool day is virtually impossible in May. This extreme underpricing makes sense: Austin rarely experiences highs below 70°F after mid-April in any year. The market resolves based on official National Weather Service data for Austin's maximum daily temperature on May 2.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Austin, Texas experiences a dramatic seasonal shift in spring, transitioning from mild March temperatures into the hot season by May. The city's May climate typically features daily highs in the 80-92°F range, with overnight lows around 65-70°F. The specific 60-61°F range in this market represents a temperature that would be 20-30°F below normal for the date—a margin that would require an exceptional meteorological event. To understand how unusual this scenario is, consider Austin's May cold-weather history: in most years, the city experiences zero days with highs below 70°F after mid-April. Even during the most severe cold snaps of May on record, highs typically remain in the low-to-mid 70s. A reading of 60-61°F would represent a once-per-decade or rarer occurrence, triggered by factors like a powerful Arctic cold front combined with cloud cover and precipitation. Such events occur occasionally across Texas—notable examples include May frost events in 1997 and 2007, though even those produced highs in the high 60s to low 70s in Austin. The market's 0% YES odds reflect fundamental meteorological reality: the National Weather Service forecast and historical probability density both suggest this outcome is essentially impossible for May 2, 2026. Traders understand that unless an extraordinary and currently unpredicted weather system develops, Austin will experience a typical May day with a high in the 80s. The extreme specificity of the 60-61°F range (rather than, say, 'below 70°F') compounds the improbability further. Given the tight timeframe—the market resolves within 24 hours—and the absence of any severe weather watches or warnings in recent forecasts, the 0% pricing appears to reflect accurate trader assessment of this scenario's vanishing probability.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service Austin forecast for May 2 high—the official determination point for market resolution
Any late-breaking atmospheric pattern shifts or cold front track changes within 24 hours of resolution
Final NOAA/NWS recorded maximum temperature for Austin on May 2, 2026—the definitive resolution metric
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves at 2026-05-02T00:00:00.000Z based on the National Weather Service official recorded maximum temperature for Austin, Texas on May 2, resolving YES if between 60-61°F inclusive.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
