This is a narrow weather forecast market for Austin, Texas, expiring May 18, 2026. The market resolves YES if the National Weather Service recorded high temperature in Austin falls between 80 and 81 degrees Fahrenheit. Currently, prediction market odds for YES stand at 0%, signaling that traders collectively assess this narrow band as extremely unlikely. The 0% odds suggest forecasted highs are either notably warmer or cooler than the 80-81 range. In May, Austin typically experiences highs in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, so the narrow specificity of this range explains the extreme skepticism. The market's $9,398 liquidity and $638 24-hour volume indicate modest but consistent trading interest in daily Austin temperature forecasts. Weather markets of this granularity require high confidence in forecast precision, which is rarely achievable more than a few hours before observation. The 0% odds trajectory reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting weather to such exact specifications. As May 18 approaches and actual conditions become clearer, traders may reassess if evidence emerges that the high is tracking toward the 80-81 band.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Austin's climate in mid-May represents late spring conditions with relatively consistent warming trends but day-to-day variability driven by broader atmospheric patterns. Historical data for May 18 in Austin shows typical highs ranging from 82 to 88 degrees Fahrenheit, with a multi-decade average around 85°F. The exact temperature on any given day depends on atmospheric patterns, cloud cover, wind conditions, and moisture levels developing over the preceding 72 hours. The specific 80-81 degree band in this market represents a temperature slightly below the historical May average for this date, suggesting the market is asking whether a cooler-than-normal day will occur. Several factors could push Austin's May 18 high toward YES territory. A strong low-pressure system moving into Texas from the north could bring cloud cover and cooler maritime air, preventing solar heating from reaching typical levels. Prolonged morning clouds or afternoon thunderstorms could cap highs through moisture-induced cooling and evaporative effects from precipitation. A southward shift in the jet stream could allow a cooler air mass to reach Central Texas and persist through the afternoon. Conversely, multiple factors push against YES and toward warmer conditions. Persistent high pressure over the region would encourage clear skies, maximizing solar heating and pushing highs well into the mid-80s or higher. Low humidity and sustained sunshine would accelerate surface warming throughout the day. Typical May circulation patterns often deliver afternoon highs into the 85-87 range for Austin, making the 80-81 band statistically narrow relative to the distribution. A warming trend across the southern plains would shift equilibrium temperatures higher region-wide. The 0% odds reflect trader assessment that either prevailing National Weather Service forecasts point clearly to mid-80s highs, or that traders view the exact 80-81 outcome as statistically improbable given May climatology. The complete absence of YES bids suggests near-universal conviction that forecasted conditions lean warmer.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service high-temperature forecast for Austin on May 18 at 6 PM CT; margin of error typically ±3 degrees.
Atmospheric pressure systems and cloud cover development over Texas May 16-17; cloud cover will reduce solar heating capability.
Morning low-pressure system timing and intensity; strong system arrival could cap highs, weak system allows normal warming.
Overnight temperature floor and dew point; higher dew points and warm overnight lows would drive daytime high upward.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if the National Weather Service records Austin's high temperature at exactly 80 or 81 degrees Fahrenheit on May 18, 2026. Resolves NO if the recorded high is below 80 or above 81 degrees.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
