Beijing in early May experiences a critical seasonal transition from spring toward early summer, with typical daily maximum temperatures ranging between 24 and 32 degrees Celsius. This prediction market asks a highly specific question: whether Beijing's maximum temperature on May 2, 2026 will reach exactly 27°C, not merely fall within a range. At 27°C, temperatures would sit roughly in the middle of Beijing's expected May range, making it theoretically plausible but statistically uncommon as an exact outcome. Weather prediction typically operates within ranges rather than single-degree precision, which explains why the market assigns only 1% odds to this specific temperature. The current pricing reflects trader consensus that Beijing's May 2 maximum will deviate meaningfully from 27°C in either direction. Reaching precisely 27°C would require particular meteorological conditions: moderate cloud cover preventing excessive warming, stable air masses without strong warm fronts, and absence of rain systems that would suppress daytime highs. Historical May 2 temperature data would reveal whether 27°C is a frequent outcome or rare occurrence. The extremely low odds indicate market skepticism about achieving single-degree weather prediction accuracy, combined with expectations that spring weather variability will push temperatures either warmer or cooler.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Beijing's weather in early May represents a critical transition from spring toward early summer, with the city typically experiencing maximum daily temperatures between 23 and 32 degrees Celsius. Predicting an exact temperature of 27°C requires unusual meteorological precision, as most weather forecasts operate within broader temperature ranges rather than single-degree accuracy. For temperatures to reach this specific mark, Beijing would need a precise convergence of meteorological factors: moderate cloud cover that prevents excessive daytime warming, stable continental high-pressure systems without warm air masses pushing northward from subtropical regions, and absence of rain systems that would suppress afternoon highs. Additionally, urban heat island effects from the city's dense infrastructure must align naturally with atmospheric conditions to produce exactly 27°C rather than 26°C or 28°C. Several meteorological scenarios could theoretically support a 27°C outcome. A typical spring day with moderate cloud patterns and light winds could allow normal solar heating combined with urban effects to reach this middle-ground temperature. Seasonal spring conditions with normal humidity and wind patterns aligned with May historical averages would further support this specific outcome. Conversely, multiple scenarios could push temperatures away from this exact target in either direction. Warmer air masses moving northward from subtropical regions—increasingly common as climate patterns shift—could drive highs to 28–30°C or beyond, overshooting the 27°C mark. Cooler north winds from continental regions or persistent rain systems could suppress temperatures to 25–26°C or lower. Late spring monsoon systems occasionally affect Beijing in early May, bringing rain and cloud cover that suppress daytime heating significantly. Recent climate trends show Beijing's spring temperatures gradually warming year-over-year, making higher temperatures increasingly common. The 1% odds suggest traders assess single-degree temperature prediction as extremely unlikely, reflecting both fundamental technical limitations of meteorological forecasting and inherent variability of spring weather systems. Modern weather models typically operate within 2–3 degree accuracy windows rather than precise single-degree predictions.
What traders watch for
May 2 morning meteorological forecasts showing predicted Beijing high temperature range
Midday temperature readings as Beijing approaches daily maximum heat accumulation
Weather system movement: warm air masses, monsoon activity, or cool winds affecting region
Official recorded maximum temperature from Beijing meteorological authorities at day's end
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves on May 2, 2026 at midnight UTC based on Beijing's official maximum daily temperature. YES only if the highest temperature reaches exactly 27°C; any other value resolves NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
