Busan, South Korea's second-largest city and a major port on the Korea Strait, experiences a temperate maritime climate shaped by coastal influences. In early May, the region transitions fully into spring, with typical daily highs ranging between 16°C and 22°C as seasonal warming accelerates northward along the peninsula. The question poses a precise threshold: will Busan's maximum temperature on May 2, 2026 be exactly 18°C? With current YES odds at 0%, the prediction market reflects overwhelming trader consensus that the actual daily high will diverge from this specific point. This pricing makes intuitive sense—hitting any exact whole-degree mark in real-world temperature outcomes is statistically uncommon, and prediction markets typically price extreme precision very low. Resolution is unambiguous: official Korean Meteorological Administration stations in Busan record hourly temperatures, and the daily maximum is readily verifiable. The 0% odds suggest traders regard 18°C as falling outside the expected range for this transitional May day, though historical patterns for Busan's early May highs would determine actual probabilities.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Busan's climate is heavily influenced by its geographic position on the Korea Strait, which provides moderating effects on extreme temperatures throughout the year. The city's May weather typically follows a predictable seasonal transition marked by rapid increases in solar radiation and longer daylight hours. Early May marks the unofficial end of spring's cool-weather dominance and the beginning of the summer warming phase across South Korea. Historically, Busan's May average highs range from 18°C to 24°C, with early May clustering toward the cooler end of that spectrum as the continental landmass begins heating. The specific prediction of exactly 18°C as a daily maximum is statistically unusual—real-world temperature observations rarely align with whole-degree thresholds, and the probability of hitting any single degree is distributed across a continuous range. In practice, daily highs in early May Busan tend to oscillate within narrow bands of 2–4°C, often settling between 17°C and 22°C depending on cloud cover, wind patterns, and moisture transport from the Korea Strait. Several factors would need to align for May 2 to see a maximum of exactly 18°C: a persistent maritime flow of cool air from the sea, substantial cloud cover limiting solar heating, and stable atmospheric conditions would all suppress warming below typical late-spring levels. Conversely, multiple conditions would push the high away from 18°C—clear skies and direct solar radiation could easily push highs to 20–22°C; inland warm air advection from the interior would lift temperatures further; persistent southwesterly winds could channel warmer tropical air northward from the subtropics. Recent May patterns across South Korea (2023–2025) show daily highs in Busan usually exceeding 20°C by mid-May, suggesting early May rests at the cooler end of the monthly range but typically trends higher than 18°C. Weather models and seasonal climatology both point toward early May Busan highs clustering around 19–21°C. The 0% odds reflect trader certainty that 18°C falls outside the probable outcome distribution. This extreme confidence is rare for weather point-forecast markets, which normally assign at least 2–5% probability to specific degree thresholds. The pricing implies traders collectively view 18°C as too cold relative to late spring warming expectations and expect actual highs to exceed this threshold.
What traders watch for
Korean Meteorological Administration publishes official Busan daily maximum temperature on May 3; this exact reading resolves the market.
Cloud cover forecast for May 2: persistent clouds suppress solar heating; clear skies typically push Busan highs above 20°C.
Wind pattern direction: cool maritime flow from Korea Strait moderates temperatures; warm southwesterly advection elevates highs above 20°C.
Historical May 2 Busan records (2020–2025) cluster around 19–21°C daily highs, placing 18°C below the typical seasonal range.
Sea surface temperature of Korea Strait influences low-level moisture; warmer waters favor conventional May 2 heating patterns.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves at the end of day May 2, 2026 based on the official daily maximum temperature recorded by the Korean Meteorological Administration for Busan. YES wins if the high is exactly 18°C; any other value resolves NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
