Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province in central China, enters late spring in mid-May with warming temperatures as summer approaches. The question asks whether the maximum temperature will reach exactly 35°C (approximately 95°F) on May 18, 2026. At just 1% odds, the market strongly suggests this outcome is unlikely, signaling either expectations for cooler conditions or temperatures exceeding this specific threshold. Historical May data for Chengdu shows average highs ranging from 28–32°C, though heat waves can push temperatures above 35°C. The specificity of the question—requiring the high to be exactly 35°C, not a range—makes this a precise meteorological event rather than a general heat forecast. Weather services report daily highs with standard measurement protocols, making the outcome objectively resolvable. The low odds reflect traders' confidence that Chengdu will see cooler-than-average temperatures on this date or that heat will exceed this particular threshold. With the market closing within 24 hours, final price movements typically reflect weather model convergence and real-time forecast updates from meteorological authorities.
What factors could move this market?
Chengdu's climate in mid-May represents a transitional period between spring and summer, with increasing afternoon heat but still relatively mild overnight lows. The city is situated in the Sichuan Basin, a geographic feature that can amplify heat through reduced wind circulation and valley effect, though such amplification typically pushes temperatures above baseline predictions rather than capping them precisely at 35°C. Historical weather records for Chengdu show May temperatures highly variable—cool years may see highs peak around 28–30°C, while warmer years approach or exceed 35°C. The question's specificity—requiring exactly 35°C rather than a range—mathematically narrows the probability space significantly, as temperatures typically vary by 1–2 degrees day-to-day based on cloud cover, wind patterns, and humidity variations. Several factors could theoretically push the market toward YES. A stable high-pressure system building over central China could create sustained heating, though such systems often push maximum temperatures even higher, overshooting 35°C by 1–3 degrees due to intense surface heating. Mild atmospheric conditions with moderate wind and humidity might allow a 35°C high, but achieving such precision requires a narrow meteorological window. Conversely, factors pushing toward NO include cloud cover or moisture intrusion from tropical systems affecting southern China, which could suppress afternoon highs into the 32–34°C range entirely. Alternatively, an intense heat wave could push temperatures to 36–38°C, missing the mark in the opposite direction. Recent long-term climate trends in central China show spring temperatures climbing slightly, but May's position before peak summer heating means substantial day-to-day variability remains normal. Traders' extreme bearishness—evidenced by the 1% YES odds—reflects broad consensus that regional weather patterns are expected to deliver either cooler conditions or heat that overshoots this precise 35°C threshold. This conviction likely reflects latest meteorological model consensus and automated feeds that prediction markets increasingly incorporate. The extremely short time horizon (resolution within 24 hours) means price reflects near-final forecast confidence from local and regional weather bureaus rather than speculative positioning.
What are traders watching for?
China Meteorological Administration releases official Chengdu daily high by May 18 midnight UTC; market resolves based on authoritative weather data.
Latest 24-hour forecast models converge on expected maximum temperature; shifts from current projections would impact final odds in closing hours.
Regional atmospheric pressure systems and wind patterns determine whether afternoon heating peaks below 35°C, exactly at it, or well above.
Morning cloud cover timing and intensity of midday solar heating will finalize temperature trajectory in the final 12 hours before close.
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if China's official meteorological authority records the maximum temperature in Chengdu on May 18, 2026 as exactly 35°C. Market closes May 18 at 00:00 UTC.
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