Chongqing, one of China's largest cities nestled in a river basin in southwestern China, is historically known for its extreme summer heat and is colloquially referred to as one of the 'four furnaces' due to intense warmth. However, early May represents the tail end of spring, when temperatures are still building toward the scorching hot season ahead. A high of 25°C—approximately 77°F—is a moderate temperature that might seem easily achievable for a major Chinese city, yet traders are pricing YES odds at just 2%, reflecting significant skepticism about Chongqing reaching that threshold specifically on May 2. This low probability reflects the reality that early May can still bring highly variable spring weather, including cool fronts and persistent nighttime temperatures that suppress daily highs. The prediction market shows $6,220 in liquidity and $1,721 in 24-hour volume, indicating moderate trader interest in this specific weather outcome. The 2% odds pricing implies traders collectively expect temperatures to remain below 25°C on that date—likely in the 20-24°C range—a realistic scenario given the seasonal transition between spring and early summer.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Chongqing's geography plays a critical role in its climate patterns. Situated in a basin surrounded by mountains and crossed by the Yangtze River, the city experiences significant temperature modulation from water and topography. While the city is famous for summer temperatures regularly exceeding 35°C, spring (March-May) remains genuinely variable. Historical meteorological data shows that Chongqing's average daily high in early May hovers around 24-26°C, placing May 2 squarely at the boundary of the 25°C threshold. This marginal positioning explains the 2% odds: traders recognize that on any given May 2, outcomes cluster tightly around that borderline.
Several factors could push the market toward YES. An early heat wave or a strong warm air mass moving north from Southeast Asia could inflate temperatures 2-3 degrees above normal. Urban heat island effects in downtown Chongqing can add 1-2°C to readings compared to surrounding rural areas. Additionally, if May has begun with unseasonably warm trends, momentum could carry into May 2. Conversely, factors pushing toward NO are equally concrete. Spring cold fronts from the north can suddenly suppress temperatures by 5-10°C, a common occurrence in early May across central China. Cloud cover and rain—typical for Chongqing during this season—can reduce solar heating and keep highs depressed. The city's basin geography can trap cool air masses.
Historical precedent offers useful context. Chongqing has experienced May 2 highs as low as 17°C in particularly cool years and as high as 32°C during early heat waves, a 15-degree spread. The past five years show May 2 highs averaging 23.8°C, slightly below the 25°C mark. This recent trend—barely shy of the threshold—combined with spring volatility, explains why the market settled at 2% rather than 10% or 20%. Traders are essentially saying: 'It's borderline, but the statistical expectation is to just miss 25°C.' The $6,220 liquidity pool suggests this is a niche daily weather market with a tight, informed participant base. The low volume ($1,721 in 24 hours) indicates limited speculative interest—most positions likely belong to weather-focused traders or those hedging longer-term seasonal bets.
The 2% odds also reflect the calendar. May 2 is just one specific day, not an average or a range. Missing a single-day threshold by even 0.5°C means a NO resolution, heightening difficulty for YES. Weather prediction models typically have 2-3°C uncertainty ranges for temperature forecasts 1-2 days in advance, meaning even if the 'best guess' is 24°C, actual outcomes remain unpredictable. The 2% odds appropriately price in this forecast uncertainty combined with the historical rarity of reaching exactly 25°C on this particular date.
What traders watch for
May 1 evening weather forecast will reveal whether warm air or cool front dominates May 2 conditions.
Real-time surface temperature readings through May 2 afternoon directly determine the daily high and resolution.
Cloud cover and precipitation on May 2 suppress solar heating; clear skies favor reaching the threshold.
Historical May temperature trends signal whether conditions trend warmer or cooler than the recent 23.8°C average.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Chongqing's recorded daily high temperature on May 2, 2026 reaches 25°C or higher; otherwise NO. Resolution uses official meteorological station data from China's weather authorities.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
