Dallas in early May typically sees highs in the mid-70s to low-80s Fahrenheit. The current 0% YES odds reflect this seasonal reality—achieving a high of 55°F or below would require an unusually severe cold snap. Today is May 1st, and the market resolves tomorrow at midnight UTC based on the official high temperature recorded by National Weather Service. The current odds suggest traders are highly confident that Dallas will not experience such extreme cooling. A 55°F high would be roughly 20–25°F below the typical May pattern for North Texas. While spring weather can be unpredictable, the 0% odds indicate no meaningful probability of such a severe cold event. The market captures short-term weather volatility—this is a recurring daily market, so similar temperature predictions occur for many US cities. Traders have priced in the full expectation that Dallas will warm well above this threshold, reflecting both historical seasonal trends and any available forward-looking weather data.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Dallas spring weather in early May is characterized by warming trends as the region transitions from spring into early summer. Historically, Dallas has not experienced highs below 55°F in May since late April or early May in some years, but such occurrences are rare after the first few days of the month. The current market resolves based on the National Weather Service's official high temperature recording for Dallas/Fort Worth, making it an objectively verifiable outcome. A high of 55°F or lower on May 2 would represent an extremely unlikely weather event—roughly 20 to 25 degrees below the typical May average for the region, which ranges from 77 to 82 degrees Fahrenheit depending on the specific location within the Dallas metro area. The factors that could theoretically push the market toward YES (below 55°F) are limited but not impossible. A severe weather system, such as an unseasonably powerful cold front with northern wind flow, could theoretically deliver a brief cold snap. Historical analogs exist: Dallas has experienced unusually cool May days tied to Arctic outbreaks that penetrated into Texas, though these are exceptional events that occur perhaps once every 10-15 years. Such a system would need to be unexpected and well-organized to overcome the seasonal warm bias. Conversely, the NO outcome (above 55°F) is aligned with normal seasonal expectations. Even if cloud cover or rain reduces peak heating, typical May lows in Dallas are in the low 60s, and highs typically break 70 degrees even on cool days. The 0% YES odds reflect trader conviction that no credible weather model or pattern support indicates such an extreme outcome. The implied probability distribution has essentially shifted all remaining confidence to NO, suggesting traders view this as close to impossible given available meteorological data. The 0% odds on YES also illustrate the nature of very short-dated weather markets—as they approach resolution, prices converge toward their ultimate outcome more sharply. With less than 24 hours to resolution, traders have had time to observe evolving weather forecasts and incorporate any late updates into their positions.
