Dallas's May 2, 2026 weather is an objectively resolvable event — the National Weather Service will record the official high temperature at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, establishing whether it falls within the 62–63°F band. At 0% YES odds, the prediction market reflects trader consensus that this specific range is extremely unlikely for this date. Seasonally, Dallas experiences highs of 75–85°F in early May, placing May 2 well into the spring warming phase. For the high to land at 62–63°F would require a significant meteorological reversal — a strong cold front, persistent cloud cover, or unusual atmospheric conditions. The market's pricing suggests traders expect normal May thermal conditions or warmer, consistent with historical spring-to-summer warming trends. This narrow-band prediction showcases the precision required in weather futures: even small shifts in pressure systems, wind patterns, or solar input can swing daily highs by several degrees, making exact-range forecasts inherently difficult. The consensus 0% odds indicate trader expectation that May 2 will run substantially warmer than this cool range, likely 20+ degrees Fahrenheit above the resolution threshold.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Dallas weather in early May is shaped by latitude, continental positioning, and seasonal transition dynamics. The city sits at 32.8°N in the subtropical humidity belt, where spring warming accelerates as solar radiation strengthens and Gulf moisture increases. By early May, afternoon highs routinely exceed 80°F. A 62–63°F high would represent a 15–20 degree departure below normal, requiring significant meteorological disruption — typically a late-season cold front with cloud cover and northerly surface winds. Historically, such cool May days are uncommon after the first week, as warm air masses increasingly dominate the region. They occur only when upper-level troughs dig southward, pulling Arctic air unusually far into Texas. Recent May weather across the state has trended warmer, with multi-year data showing late spring days increasingly running above rather than below normal. The 0% YES odds reflect trader assignment of near-zero probability to the 62–63°F outcome, suggesting high confidence in normal-to-warm conditions or acceptance that cooler scenarios are statistically improbable by May 2. This consensus arises from multiple factors: seasonal climatology strongly favors warmth, current weather models (GFS, NAM, HRRR) likely show no significant cool disruption by May 2, and the historical frequency of such cool days drops sharply after May 1. Traders with access to NOAA/National Weather Service forecasts would spot any impending cold fronts or troughs. The complete absence of YES bids at any price level suggests forecasters see no realistic mechanism for this cool outcome. Longer-term climate trends across Texas show reduced frequency of late cool snaps, with spring transitioning more rapidly into summer warmth. The 62–63°F band's specificity — a single-degree window — amplifies unlikelihood: achieving that precise range requires near-perfect alignment of temperature trends, which markets rationally view as exceptionally low-probability.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service official high for Dallas/Fort Worth on May 2 — the definitive resolution metric for this entire market.
NOAA/GFS/NAM forecast updates from now through May 1 will reveal any cold fronts or anomalous patterns capable of producing cooler air.
Upper-level atmospheric pressure and jet stream position in the 24 hours before May 2 — critical driver of whether Arctic air reaches Texas.
Real-time temperatures and dew points on May 1 evening — indicate overnight lows and morning trends that influence daytime highs.
Historical May 2 Dallas weather from past decades — provides context for how typical this forecast is relative to seasonal norms.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the National Weather Service's official high temperature recorded at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport on May 2, 2026. YES wins if the high falls between 62 and 63 degrees Fahrenheit, inclusive; NO wins otherwise.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
