This market asks whether Dallas will experience a high of exactly 78-79°F on May 18, 2026. The current 0% YES odds indicate traders believe this specific temperature range is extremely unlikely for that date. The narrow one-degree window is highly specific—Dallas's May temperatures typically range far wider across the month. At 0% odds, the market is essentially pricing in that actual highs will either substantially exceed 79°F or fall well below 78°F. This reflects strong trader conviction that mid-May Dallas weather will deviate meaningfully from this narrow band. The resolution depends solely on the official National Weather Service high temperature reading for Dallas-Fort Worth on May 18. Understanding why this temperature range trades at zero probability offers valuable insight into seasonal trader expectations. Spring weather in Dallas is traditionally volatile, with May highs often climbing into the mid-80s or occasionally retreating into the lower 70s depending on atmospheric setup, cloud cover, wind patterns, and moisture availability across the region.
What factors could move this market?
Dallas in mid-May sits at an interesting transitional point in the North Texas spring season. Climatologically, May average highs in Dallas range from the low 80s to mid-80s Fahrenheit, with nighttime lows typically in the low 60s. However, the month exhibits considerable day-to-day variability—early May can still see occasional cool, wet systems push through from the northwest, while later May usually locks into warmer, more stable patterns as the summer high-pressure setup begins establishing. The 78-79°F range sits notably below the May 18 climatological normal for Dallas, which means achieving this outcome requires specific atmospheric conditions to align. For this market to resolve YES, Dallas would need either a strong spring cold front to move through the region with significant cloud cover blocking afternoon solar heating, or a system producing extensive moisture and precipitation that would suppress temperatures throughout the day. Historical data on May 18 specifically shows Dallas has recorded highs ranging from the low 60s to well above 90°F in different years—the variance is substantial and reflects the month's transitional nature. Cooler outcomes in the 78-79°F range have historically occurred during years when significant upper-level troughs pushed Pacific moisture and cooler air southward, creating a brief cool spell before warmth reasserts. For the market to resolve NO—the far more probable scenario—either a warm, sunny day would push well into the 80s or low 90s, consistent with typical mid-May Dallas weather, or conversely, a vigorous cold front would produce much cooler temperatures below 78°F. The 78-79°F band is narrow enough that it represents a goldilocks zone unlikely to be hit. The zero probability assigned by traders reflects this structural reality: this specific temperature window is improbable because Dallas May weather tends toward the edges of the range, not the narrow middle. The market's zero pricing also reflects forecasting precision limits. Even if models suggest a mild day, pinpointing the exact high within one degree is exceptionally difficult three to four days in advance.
What are traders watching for?
National Weather Service May 18 high-temperature forecast for Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area
Upper-level atmospheric patterns and jet stream position from May 15-18
Surface weather systems including cold fronts, high pressure, and moisture availability
Historical May 18 temperature records in Dallas and frequency of cool-day patterns
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on the official National Weather Service high temperature for Dallas-Fort Worth on May 18, 2026. If the reported high is 78°F or 79°F, the market resolves YES; any other temperature resolves NO.
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