Denver's May 2 temperature market focuses on an unusually narrow and frigid prediction: a high of just 44-45°F. Currently trading at 0% YES odds, this reflects strong trader conviction that early May in Denver will be significantly warmer than this threshold. Historically, Denver's average high on May 2 ranges between 67-72°F, making the 44-45°F range a decidedly cold outcome—roughly 20-25 degrees below climatological normal for the date. For this narrow band to resolve YES, Denver would need an unexpected spring cold snap or a significant weather system to move through Colorado on May 2, bringing unseasonably cold air down from Canada or stalling an upper-level trough directly overhead. The 0% odds suggest the market is entirely weighted toward temperatures well above this range, either in the 50s-60s (still modestly below early May norms) or the more typical 70s. This pricing reflects overwhelming trader confidence that normal-to-warmer spring weather patterns are likely to hold steady through May 2, with no major Arctic outbreak or polar vortex disruption anticipated. The extreme specificity of the 44-45°F range makes this a highly technical niche prediction rather than a general temperature bracket trade.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Denver's early May weather patterns typically reflect the shoulder season between spring and early summer. The city sits at 5,280 feet elevation on the front range of the Rocky Mountains, giving it a unique climate characterized by rapid temperature swings, low humidity, and significant day-to-night variations. May 2 marks the beginning of Denver's more consistently warm period, though late-season cold snaps can occasionally dip into the 30s and 40s, particularly if Arctic air surges southward or a major storm system stalls over the region. Historically, May 2 highs in Denver cluster around 68°F on average, with a typical range of 62-75°F. Temperatures as low as 44-45°F would require specific meteorological conditions: either a continental Arctic outbreak bringing Canadian air masses far south, a deep upper-level trough that redirects colder air from the north, or an unusually vigorous spring storm system. Such conditions are certainly possible—Denver has experienced May days in the 40s before—but they represent a notable departure from climatological expectations for early May. The current 0% YES odds indicate that traders view the probability of this specific 44-45°F range as negligible. This could reflect several factors: modern weather forecasting models showing no significant cold snap or major weather system expected for May 2; the narrowness of the range itself, making accidental hits unlikely even if temperatures dip below normal; and general seasonal confidence that by May, Denver's high mountain desert climate is trending warmer despite occasional cool days. The spring of 2026 would need to show an unusual pattern of late-season Arctic intrusions to challenge this trader consensus. Comparable historical May 2 events in Denver rarely show extremes. While the city can experience frost or freezing temperatures early in May—particularly at lower elevations in surrounding areas—Denver itself typically avoids extended periods of 40s-range highs by late spring. If traders are assigning 0% probability to 44-45°F, they're expressing confidence that either normal seasonal warming will prevail or that any cool day will moderate into the 50s or 60s rather than settling in the exact narrow band specified. The zero spread and minimal volume on YES contracts suggests this range may have been priced out of trader consideration entirely, perhaps viewed as too cold for May 2 regardless of any actual forecast uncertainty. Resolution will depend entirely on the National Weather Service Denver high temperature recorded for May 2, 2026—a straightforward objective criterion with no ambiguity.
What traders watch for
May 2 NWS Denver high temperature resolution: Market resolves YES only if recorded high falls exactly between 44-45°F.
Late-April weather patterns and May 1 forecast updates from NWS will indicate whether any cold system affects Denver on May 2.
Historical May 2 highs in Denver average 67-72°F; temperatures of 44-45°F are rare and require Arctic air or storm system.
An Arctic outbreak or deep upper-level trough stalling over Colorado could trigger the cool threshold needed for YES resolution.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the National Weather Service Denver recorded high temperature for May 2, 2026. YES wins if the high falls between 44-45°F (inclusive); NO wins for any temperature outside this range.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
