May 2 falls in early spring for Denver, a season when typical highs range from the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit. A high of only 50-51°F would represent a notably cool day for that time of year, signaling a significant cold front or unusual atmospheric pattern moving through the region. This market targets an exceptionally narrow temperature band—just a two-degree window—which directly explains the current 0% odds. Traders view the probability that Denver's high will land in precisely that range as effectively zero, suggesting near-unanimous consensus that actual conditions will either exceed or fall short of this band. The market resolves using official observations from the National Weather Service or Denver International Airport, finalized at midnight May 2. Understanding Denver's May climate context helps illuminate the market's specificity: spring weather here is inherently variable, with daily swings of 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit common. However, a high of 50-51°F would place that day near the cool extreme of seasonal possibility, well below the typical May average. The 0% odds reflect trader conviction that May 2's actual high temperature will deviate outside this narrow range, whether warmer or colder.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Denver's location on the Great Plains at 5,280 feet elevation subjects it to dramatic spring weather swings driven by competing air masses. May is a transitional month when the jet stream frequently dips southward, pulling cold Canadian air across the region, while subtropical moisture simultaneously flows northward. The interplay between these systems produces exceptional variability. Historically, May highs in Denver range from the 30s during rare exceptional cold snaps to the 80s on warm south wind events. The specific 50-51°F range sits within a notably narrow window of climatological possibility. For this market to resolve YES, Denver would need a distinctly cool day—colder than the May average but not extreme enough to approach the 40s. This could occur if a late-season trough of low pressure settles over the region with strong northerly flow aloft, or if a cold front sweeps through the plains with significant meridional circulation. Such patterns are meteorologically possible in early May but statistically uncommon at the scale needed for this exact temperature band; traders pricing YES at 0% are assessing this as near-impossible. Conversely, factors pushing toward NO include any semblance of normal or above-normal spring warmth. A high-pressure system anchoring over the Southwest or Pacific coast would push warm air northward into Denver, or simple seasonal southwesterly flow would accomplish similar warming, easily pushing the high into the 60s-70s range. Recent May weather in Denver exhibits considerable year-to-year variance: some years feature late freezes and cool spells lasting days, while others see early summer-like warmth by mid-month. Climatologically, May 1-15 averages around 65-68°F for highs, meaning 50-51°F sits approximately 15-17 degrees below seasonal normal. The market's 0% odds suggest traders believe May 2 will either produce spring-like conditions or swing toward genuine cold, but NOT land in the narrow 50-51°F band. The two-degree window functions as a narrow zone where neither warm nor cold extremes dominate; traders are effectively betting against a very specific outcome.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service forecast high temperature for Denver on May 2; monitor any cold front timing and intensity
Jet stream position and upper-level trough or ridge development affecting the Great Plains region through May 2
Official high temperature observation at Denver International Airport at midnight May 2, per NOAA records
Surface wind direction and speed May 1-2; presence of northerly winds indicating cold air mass advection
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the official high temperature recorded at Denver International Airport on May 2, 2026, per NOAA/National Weather Service. Resolution is YES only if that high falls between 50°F and 51°F inclusive; all other outcomes resolve NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
