Guangzhou, a major city in southern China, experiences tropical and subtropical weather patterns. This prediction market asks whether the highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 17 will be exactly 23°C—a relatively mild day for the season. The market resolves based on official temperature readings from meteorological authorities. At 0% odds, traders are expressing near-complete skepticism that the temperature will hit this precise figure. Guangzhou in May typically sees highs ranging from 28–35°C depending on humidity and weather systems. A reading of 23°C would represent significantly cooler conditions than seasonal norms, possibly requiring a cold front or rainy system to suppress temperatures. The specificity of the question—requiring an exact temperature rather than a range—makes it intrinsically difficult to hit. Traders likely view this as an extremely unlikely outcome given climatological precedent and current atmospheric conditions, though weather remains fundamentally uncertain 24 hours ahead.
What factors could move this market?
Guangzhou, located in Guangdong Province in southern China, sits at approximately 23°N latitude with a humid subtropical to tropical climate. May is transitional between spring and summer, marking the beginning of the rainy season and the approach of monsoon patterns. Typical highs for mid-May range from 30–34°C. The question asks for an exact high of 23°C, which would be unusually cool for this time of year. Several meteorological conditions could theoretically push Guangzhou toward cooler temperatures. A cold air mass advection event from the north, though rare in May, could suppress daytime highs. Persistent cloud cover and moderate rainfall from an active monsoonal system could reduce solar radiation and limit temperature rise. A weakening high-pressure system could allow northerly winds to penetrate southward. Historically, May temperatures have occasionally dipped below 25°C following cold fronts, but readings at exactly 23°C for the daily high are exceptionally rare. Conversely, typical May weather patterns strongly favor NO. Guangzhou typically experiences rising heat and increased humidity during this period, with most days seeing highs well above 28°C. Even rainy days often achieve highs in the 25–28°C range rather than 23°C, and seasonal climatology heavily favors warmer outcomes. The 0% odds reflect trader conviction that this precise threshold is unrealistic. Weather prediction markets often show extreme probabilities for highly specific outcomes because the atmosphere rarely lands on narrow targets. Traders are assessing the compound probability of a weather system cool enough to suppress highs to 23°C, that system arriving on this specific date, and the high being exactly 23°C rather than 22°C or 24°C. The mathematics of micro-probability in weather make such precise outcomes extremely unlikely. The market prices in near-certainty that May 17 will either be warmer than 23°C, or potentially cooler, but not exactly at this threshold.
What are traders watching for?
Monitor satellite imagery and numerical weather prediction models through May 17 morning for any unexpected cold front or low-pressure system development across southern China.
Check official Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau forecast for the May 17 daily high temperature, issued in the days before the event.
Review historical records for May 17 temperatures in Guangzhou and frequency of cool days during typical May weather patterns.
Track monsoon system onset timing and cloud cover development—may bring rain but unlikely to suppress highs below 25 degrees Celsius.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 17 at 00:00 UTC based on the official daily high temperature recorded by the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. YES wins if and only if the highest temperature on May 17 is exactly 23°C; any other reading resolves to NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
