Guangzhou, China's major subtropical port city, experiences rapid warming during spring's transition into summer. Early May typically sees daytime highs ranging 26–30°C as the region shifts from monsoon influences to pre-summer heat. A maximum temperature of exactly 24°C on May 2 would represent unusually cool conditions for this season, suggesting either persistent cloud cover, significant rainfall, or a lingering cold front from inland regions. The 0% YES odds reflect trader consensus that this precise threshold is highly unlikely given historical patterns—Guangzhou rarely cools to 24°C highs in May except during exceptional weather events. The market's extremely low liquidity ($5,318) and minimal 24-hour volume ($598) indicate limited trader interest in such specific weather outcomes. Most traders appear confident the May 2 high will exceed 24°C, with the real uncertainty lying in whether temperatures spike above 30°C rather than settling in the typical 26–29°C range. The odds trajectory has remained near zero since inception, suggesting consistent trader conviction that exact-match weather predictions face structural disadvantages.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Guangzhou's subtropical climate in May represents a critical seasonal transition period. Located at approximately 23°N latitude on the South China coast, the city sits in a meteorological zone where spring monsoon influences begin ceding to pre-monsoon heating and increasing solar radiation. Historical weather records maintained by the China Meteorological Administration document that May daily high temperatures in Guangzhou average 28–29°C, with recorded extremes ranging from 23°C on exceptionally cool days to 35°C during early-season heat waves. A maximum high of exactly 24°C would rank within the lowest 5–10% of all May temperature observations for the city over the past three decades—an outcome requiring convergence of specific adverse meteorological conditions. For the YES scenario to occur, traders would expect sustained cloud cover throughout the day blocking solar radiation, significant rainfall during business hours, or an exceptional northerly wind surge transporting cooler air masses from inland high-elevation regions. Recent climate data covering 2020–2025 demonstrates that Guangzhou's May daily highs cluster tightly around the 27–30°C range in approximately 80% of observations, with sub-25°C readings predominantly confined to earlier spring months or directly following tropical storm passages. The NO scenario—which currently dominates trader positioning—reflects the far more statistically probable baseline: typical seasonal warming toward 26–28°C under normal conditions, or even 30°C-plus readings if high-pressure systems establish over South China. Current trader conviction, locked at 0% YES odds, suggests collective assessment that weather forecasts, dynamical atmospheric models (GFS and ECMWF), and three decades of historical precedent all point decisively away from unusually cool conditions on May 2. The market's vanishingly thin liquidity and minimal daily volume signal only casual retail interest—professional meteorological traders systematically avoid exact-match daily temperature markets due to resolution ambiguity, station calibration variance, and timing-of-reading uncertainties.
What traders watch for
Weather forecast updates on May 1–2 from China Meteorological Administration; watch for cloud cover predictions and rainfall probability.
May 2 maximum temperature reading published by Guangzhou meteorological station; exact 24°C threshold required for YES resolution.
Any tropical storm or cold front activity in South China during late April–early May affecting regional atmospheric patterns and heating.
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if Guangzhou's highest temperature on May 2, 2026 equals exactly 24°C according to the official China Meteorological Administration station reading. Market closes at 00:00 UTC on May 2 and resolves within 24 hours of official temperature publication.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
