Helsinki in early May sits at the threshold of spring, with average highs typically ranging from 12–16°C depending on atmospheric patterns. The market asks whether the day's peak temperature will land on exactly 15°C—a narrow target in weather trading. At 0% odds, traders overwhelmingly expect the actual high to fall either below or above this exact point. Exact-temperature markets are inherently harder to predict than range markets because they require weather systems to deliver a precise outcome rather than fall broadly within a zone. Finnish meteorological records show May 2 highs vary significantly year to year, clustering in the 10–17°C band but ranging from single digits to low 20s depending on prevailing air masses. The current odds imply either that weather forecasts lean strongly toward warmer or cooler peaks, or that the inherent measurement variability makes a precise hit unlikely. This market reflects trader conviction: betting YES requires confidence in both the forecast trend and an exact thermal outcome.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Helsinki's climate during early May transitions from active spring into early summer, yet the Nordic latitude keeps temperatures moderate compared to continental Europe. Historical meteorological data for May 2 shows recorded highs have ranged from 7°C in cold years to 24°C in unusually warm years, with the densest clustering in the 12–17°C band. Reaching exactly 15°C requires specific atmospheric conditions: sufficient solar input to lift temperatures above morning lows, but enough cloud cover or wind to prevent excessive heating. Factors that could suppress the high below 15°C include Arctic high-pressure systems pushing cold air southward, persistent overcast skies reducing insolation, or northerly winds channeling cooler air from the Baltic. Conversely, an unusually strong high-pressure ridge or southerly flow could drive peaks well into the low 20s. The 0% odds suggest weather forecast models lean toward either a distinctly cooler or distinctly warmer outcome. Weather traders account for measurement precision and timing: official highs are recorded by Finland's Meteorological Institute at standardized stations, and slight shifts in observation timing or station microclimate can shift recorded peaks by 0.5–1°C. The sparse liquidity ($5,852) and modest volume ($1,381) reflect the niche appeal of exact-temperature markets, which typically attract meteorology specialists and algorithmic weather traders rather than mainstream prediction market participants. With expiration at May 2, 2026 00:00 UTC, real-time weather observation will close this market within hours, offering minimal time for odds drift.
What traders watch for
Weather forecast model consensus for Helsinki high temperature on May 2 and directional trend.
Official recorded maximum temperature from Finnish Meteorological Institute on May 2, 2026.
Cloud cover, wind speed, and air mass behavior over Scandinavia May 1–2 affecting solar heating.
Any unexpected weather system shift that could alter the forecast high by ±2–3°C.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Finland's official meteorological authority records Helsinki's highest temperature on May 2, 2026 as exactly 15°C. Expires May 2, 2026 at 00:00 UTC; final resolution data published same day.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
