This market asks whether Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, will be exactly 22°C. Hong Kong's meteorological office publishes official daily temperature records that serve as the resolution source. In early May, Hong Kong typically experiences warm subtropical weather with daily highs ranging from 27°C to 30°C. A high of exactly 22°C would represent unusually cool conditions for this time of year, suggesting either a significant weather system or seasonal anomaly. The current 0% YES odds indicate trader consensus that this precise temperature is unlikely to occur. Weather markets with specific numerical targets like this one reflect deep conviction: traders are confident that May 2's high will deviate substantially from 22°C in either direction. The market becomes fully resolved at the end of May 2, 2026 UTC, when the official daily maximum temperature is recorded and published by the Hong Kong Observatory.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Hong Kong occupies a unique subtropical-coastal position at 22°N latitude, where the South China Sea's thermal mass, monsoon circulation patterns, and East Asian geography create a distinctive year-round climate profile. The Hong Kong Observatory, Asia's oldest meteorological institution, maintains the definitive network of weather stations across the territory, with primary observations from Kowloon serving as the official resolution source for weather-derivative markets and climate tracking. May represents a critical seasonal inflection point in Hong Kong's annual climate cycle. The month sits at the boundary between spring's lingering cool-air influences and summer's establishment of the southwestern monsoon system. Climatologically, Hong Kong's May daily high temperatures cluster in the 27–30°C range, with the month showing consistent upward trajectory from April's averages. This warming reflects dual factors: increasing solar altitude as the Northern Hemisphere moves toward summer solstice, and the gradual dominance of warm, moisture-laden air masses from tropical and subtropical regions. A May 2 high of exactly 22°C would represent a substantial deviation—roughly 5–8 degrees cooler than seasonal expectation—and would signal extraordinary meteorological conditions. Historically, such cool maxima in May occur only under specific circumstances: invasion of cold polar air from the north (increasingly rare as spring progresses), extensive cloud cover and precipitation suppressing solar heating, or collision of weather systems creating temporary cool-air anomalies. The 0% YES odds assigned by traders reflect deep understanding of both May climatology and statistical rarity. The market's structural demand—predicting an exact single-degree temperature rather than a range or threshold—creates inherently low-probability outcomes. Recent decadal data from the Observatory shows gradual warming trends consistent with broader East Asian climate patterns, further suppressing the already-low likelihood of such a cool reading. Catalysts that could theoretically push toward YES include rare continental cold fronts penetrating south, unusual cyclonic systems bringing cloud and rain, or high-altitude blocking patterns diverting cool air. The overwhelming trader consensus is that standard May weather patterns will prevail, with maximum temperatures remaining well above 22°C.
