Jakarta is a tropical city with relatively stable temperatures year-round, typically ranging from 26-32°C. May 18, 2026 falls during Jakarta's dry season when afternoon highs cluster around 30-31°C. The market question asks for an exact high of 28°C, which would be cooler than typical for this time of year—suggesting either unusual weather patterns, cloud cover, or rainfall on that specific day. The current odds at 0% reflect traders' strong conviction that Jakarta will not record a high of exactly 28°C on May 18. This extreme pricing indicates the market views such a precise, below-average temperature as highly unlikely. Historical data shows that exact temperature matches are rare—variation within 2-3°C is common. The specificity required here (28°C, not "under 28°C" or "between 28-30°C") places this in the realm of weather prediction markets where micro-precision demands extremely unlikely alignment. Traders appear confident that Jakarta's high will either exceed 28°C or fall meaningfully below it on that date.
What factors could move this market?
Jakarta's climate is characterized by a tropical monsoon system with two distinct seasons: the dry season (May-September) and the wet season (October-April). May represents the early dry season transition, marked by decreasing rainfall and rising temperatures. During this period, afternoon highs typically range between 30-32°C, with overnight lows around 23-25°C. The city's coastal location and urban heat island effect further raise daytime maxima. For the high temperature to reach exactly 28°C on May 18 would represent a 2-3°C depression below the May seasonal norm. Several factors could theoretically push temperatures downward: unusual cloud cover from residual monsoon systems, afternoon thunderstorms that cool the air through rain-cooled downdrafts, or anomalous atmospheric patterns. Conversely, clear skies, low humidity, and strong solar radiation during May typically drive Jakarta's highs toward 31-32°C—making sub-30°C days uncommon. The El Niño or La Niña phases can influence Indonesian weather patterns, but neither typically produces such precise temperature outcomes. Historically, daily temperature records in Jakarta show high volatility within seasonal bands—a single day can swing 3-5°C from its neighbors. However, achieving an exact high of 28°C is probabilistically difficult; weather observation rounds to nearest degree, but even so, the discrete jump from 27°C to 28°C to 29°C means that only roughly 1 in 5-7 days will record 28°C specifically. Adding May's seasonal bias toward hotter temperatures makes this event even rarer. The 0% odds reflect this mathematical reality rather than trader belief in a specific weather forecast. Traders are essentially applying base rates—seasonal temperature distributions, historical volatility, and the discrete nature of the outcome itself. Unlike a question such as "Will Jakarta exceed 28°C?" (which would likely trade at 90%+), the exact-match requirement makes this a tail-risk prediction market where near-zero odds are defensible based on sheer improbability.
What are traders watching for?
BMKG releases official Jakarta May 18 high temperature within 24 hours; exact 28°C resolves market YES.
Historical May records show 28°C occurs on roughly 20% of days; base rate informs trader conviction.
Monsoon tail-off timing: lingering cloud systems early May can cool afternoons below seasonal norms.
Clear-sky forecast for May 18-19 period: strong solar radiation typically pushes temperatures toward 30-32°C.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 19, 2026, based on the official high temperature recorded by Indonesia's BMKG (Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika) for Jakarta on May 18. YES wins if the recorded high is exactly 28°C; NO wins if the high is any other temperature.
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