Jakarta is a tropical coastal city with consistent hot temperatures year-round, especially during the dry season. In May, the city transitions from the wet monsoon season toward drier months, but temperatures remain elevated. Historical May data shows average highs typically range from 30°C to 33°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during hot periods. A high of 28°C or below would be significantly cooler than seasonal norms and would require sustained cloud cover, rainfall, or unusual atmospheric patterns. The prediction market currently trading at 0% YES odds reflects extreme confidence among participants that Jakarta's temperature will exceed 28°C on May 19. This pricing suggests traders view the likelihood of such cool conditions as near-zero, consistent with Jakarta's tropical climate and seasonal weather patterns. The market's low volume and liquidity indicate this is a specialized daily weather prediction market with limited participation. Understanding the resolution requires tracking the actual recorded high temperature from the Indonesian Meteorological Agency or similar official weather services for that specific date.
What factors could move this market?
Jakarta, Indonesia's capital city, sits on the northern coast of Java at approximately 6°S latitude, placing it firmly in the tropical zone. The city experiences two distinct seasons: the wet monsoon (October–April) and the dry season (May–September). May represents the transition month—the end of the primary wet season and the beginning of the dry season. During this transition, afternoons are typically hot and humid, with temperatures regularly exceeding 30°C due to increased solar radiation as cloud cover decreases. The city's coastal location and dense urban infrastructure create heat-island effects that amplify recorded temperatures compared to rural areas.
Historical temperature data from May in Jakarta shows that highs below 28°C are exceptionally rare. Most May days record highs between 30°C and 33°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during hot spells. For the high to remain at or below 28°C would require unusual conditions: persistent heavy rainfall throughout the day, sustained thick cloud cover blocking sunlight, unusually strong southeasterly winds bringing cooler ocean air, or a weather system depressing temperatures below seasonal norms. Meteorological records over the past two decades show May 19 specifically has historically recorded highs in the 31–33°C range, making sub-28°C conditions roughly 1–2% probability based on observed frequency.
The market pricing at 0% YES reflects the extreme rarity of such conditions. Traders are essentially saying they view the threshold as so unlikely that they will not bid any positive odds. This creates a one-sided market where only sellers are willing to participate. The thin liquidity ($1,714 total) indicates this is a speculative market with limited real-weather-forecasting activity; institutional meteorologists do not typically engage at these scales or timeframes. Recent weather patterns in Southeast Asia have been normal for the season, with no anomalous climate events that would suppress Jakarta temperatures below historical norms in mid-May 2026. The Indonesian Meteorological Agency forecast, when released on May 17–18, will provide the most authoritative guidance for expected May 19 conditions.
What are traders watching for?
Indonesian Meteorological Agency official weather forecast for Jakarta on May 19, released evening of May 17–18
Satellite cloud cover imagery and rainfall predictions for Jakarta on May 19; persistent rain lowers highs
Official recorded high temperature from Indonesian weather stations for May 19 versus historical 31–33°C May average
Tropical pressure systems and low-pressure zones affecting Jakarta during the dry-season transition period
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if the highest recorded temperature in Jakarta on May 19, 2026 is 28°C or below according to the Indonesian Meteorological Agency. It resolves NO if the high exceeds 28°C.
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