Jakarta sits in the equatorial lowlands where temperatures regularly exceed 30°C year-round. The city's May climate typically peaks in the early afternoon with highs around 32–34°C as the dry season transitions into the monsoon pattern. A 38°C reading would represent extreme heat—roughly 4–6°C above the seasonal average—and would be quite unusual for Jakarta in mid-May. The 0% current odds suggest traders are highly confident this threshold won't be breached on May 19 specifically. Such extreme temperatures are more common during the peak dry months (July–September) or during specific heat dome conditions. The market's pricing reflects the statistical rarity of such intense heat during this transitional period, when monsoon moisture typically moderates maximum temperatures.
What factors could move this market?
Jakarta's equatorial location at roughly 6°S latitude, surrounded by the Java Sea on three sides, creates a maritime tropical climate with consistently warm temperatures but moderated extremes compared to inland zones. Historically, Jakarta's absolute maximum temperature record stands around 38.3–38.6°C, recorded during the driest months (August–September). May represents a critical transition month—the tail end of the dry season (June–September) when monsoon circulation is beginning to shift northward. During this cusp period, afternoon thunderstorms often develop in response to heating and atmospheric instability, bringing rain that cools the surface and raises humidity; these convective systems typically suppress afternoon temperatures below 36°C. For a 38°C+ reading on May 19 would require an unusually strong, persistent high-pressure ridge and suppressed convection—essentially a heat dome scenario with sustained clear skies throughout the day. Factors favoring YES include a prolonged rainfall absence in the 3–5 days prior (allowing dry air and intense surface heating), unusually clear skies maximizing solar radiation, and weakened monsoon circulation allowing hot, dry air to stagnate. Factors strongly favoring NO include the inherent monsoon influence still active during transition, the city's coastal latitude reducing extreme heat risk, typical afternoon sea-breeze circulation providing cooling, and urbanization plus water bodies moderating peak temperatures. Recent May records from Jakarta's meteorological station show occasional 35–36°C readings but 38°C+ extremes are statistically vanishing; the market's 0% YES odds reflect near-certainty in the cooling effects of monsoon transition and the fundamental climate constraints of equatorial ocean-moderated maritime air masses.
What are traders watching for?
Rainfall patterns May 16–18: sustained dry conditions favor surface heating.
High-pressure system strength and monsoon circulation on May 19.
Cloud cover and afternoon convection timing near market resolution.
Official meteorological forecasts and weather alerts 48 hours prior.
Historical May maximum temperatures at Jakarta's official station.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Jakarta's official meteorological station records a highest temperature of 38°C or above on May 19, 2026. Resolves NO if the daily high remains below 38°C.
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