Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port city, experiences scorching temperatures throughout May as the region transitions into summer. Historically, May highs in Jeddah average between 32-35°C (90-95°F), with cooler mornings but rapid afternoon warming. The 29°C (84°F) threshold in this market represents a genuinely cool day for the region at this time of year—roughly 3-6°C below typical seasonal averages. The current market price reflects this reality: traders have assigned 0% odds to the YES outcome, indicating near-certain belief that tomorrow's high will exceed 29°C. This pricing is grounded in reliable climate data. Jeddah's coastal location moderates temperature swings compared to inland regions, yet May still brings consistent heat. Meteorological forecasts for May 2 will be the primary resolution driver. The market remains liquid despite its extreme pricing, suggesting deep confidence among traders familiar with the region's seasonal patterns. A temperature reading of 29°C or below would constitute a genuinely anomalous cool day, requiring either unusual cloud cover, wind patterns, or weather system interference.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Jeddah's location on the Red Sea coast creates a unique climate profile within Saudi Arabia's broader desert environment. The Arabian Peninsula experiences dramatic warming in late spring, and May marks the transition month where temperatures shift from moderate to extreme. Historically, Jeddah has recorded May highs ranging from 28°C to 40°C depending on atmospheric conditions, weather systems, and seasonal circulation patterns. The 29°C threshold in this market sits at the absolute floor of Jeddah's typical May range. Achieving this reading would require multiple coinciding factors: heavy cloud cover, an active weather system bringing cooler air masses, offshore wind patterns, or unusual moisture dynamics. The Red Sea coast does experience occasional cooling effects from maritime breezes and higher humidity, but these typically moderate temperature rise rather than suppress highs below 30°C in May. Traders assigning 0% odds to this outcome have effectively priced in the virtual impossibility of reaching that threshold. This reflects both historical meteorological data and real-time weather forecasting. May 2 is a specific, near-term date—the market resolves within hours—making it a pure weather-prediction instrument rather than a speculative bet on longer-term climate patterns. Current atmospheric conditions and forecast models available to traders all point toward continued heat accumulation. The Arabian Peninsula is dominated by high-pressure systems during May, creating anticyclonic circulation that suppresses cloud cover and intensifies solar heating. Jeddah's humidity, though higher than inland deserts due to marine influence, does not typically cool daytime highs significantly; instead, it affects comfort and overnight minimums. Even anomalously cool May days in Jeddah typically see highs in the 31-33°C range. Breaking the 29°C barrier would require a significant weather departure—essentially a rare cold front or unusual system, neither of which is forecast. Traders familiar with the region's climate and those monitoring forecast updates have coalesced around the view that tomorrow's high will exceed the threshold.
What traders watch for
Official high temperature from Saudi meteorological authority for May 2 in Jeddah determines market outcome.
Forecast model updates; cooler-than-expected outlooks could shift 0% YES odds reflecting new information.
Cloud cover and wind patterns; overcast conditions or marine breezes may suppress afternoon peak.
Peak temperature typically occurs 2-4 PM; exact timing affects how conditions develop throughout the day.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on the official daily high temperature in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on May 2, 2026. YES wins if the high is 29°C or below; NO wins if it exceeds 29°C.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
