Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, experiences a subtropical climate with hot, dry conditions during spring months. May 2 falls during the peak heating season before the monsoon arrives, making temperature predictions highly resolvable based on standard meteorological data. The 0% YES odds indicate that the prediction market is assigning near-zero probability to the temperature reaching 30°C on that date. This extreme conviction suggests traders expect significantly warmer conditions or recognize the unusual nature of such a precise outcome. Historically, Karachi's maximum temperatures in early May typically range between 32°C and 36°C, substantially above the 30°C threshold. The market's absolute certainty in the NO direction reflects both seasonal climate norms and trader recognition of how anomalous a sub-32°C day would be during peak pre-monsoon heating.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Karachi sits along the Arabian Sea coastline in Sindh province and ranks among South Asia's hottest major cities during late spring. The city's climate is characterized by extreme continental heat during May, driven by northwesterly winds and intense solar radiation as the monsoon system remains weeks away. Historical climate data consistently shows that daily maximum temperatures in Karachi during the first week of May rarely dip below 32°C, with most years recording highs between 34°C and 36°C. The 30°C threshold represents a temperature approximately 4-6°C cooler than typical May 2 conditions, which would require either an unexpected weather system bringing coastal moisture, unusual cloud cover, delayed monsoon activity, or other significant atmospheric anomalies. Several factors could theoretically support a YES outcome: an unexpected coastal low-pressure system, unusual sea breeze dominance extending through the afternoon, unseasonal cloud cover reducing solar radiation, or anomalous moisture influx from the Arabian Sea. Conversely, NO movement aligns with Karachi's predictable pre-monsoon climate pattern, which is sustained by seasonal pressure gradients and the city's tropical location. Recent climate trends across South Asia have actually intensified spring temperatures rather than moderated them, making the historical baseline increasingly conservative. The market's 0% YES odds may reflect not only the strong climatological baseline but also trader recognition that achieving such a cool reading would require active weather disruption rather than passive seasonal drift. No major cyclonic systems or unusual weather alerts have been issued for this date, further solidifying trader conviction that May 2 in Karachi will follow its typical hot trajectory.
What traders watch for
Pakistani Meteorological Department May 2 forecast released; watch for any monsoon moisture signals
Early monsoon onset or unusual sea breeze patterns could be the only mechanism for cooler temperatures
Official recorded high temperature from Karachi meteorological station determines final resolution
Pre-monsoon heat dominance makes sub-31°C readings exceptionally rare in this region during May
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if the highest temperature in Karachi on May 2, 2026 reaches 30°C based on official meteorological data. Market closes May 2, 2026 UTC.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
