Lagos, Nigeria's largest city, sits on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea and experiences a tropical climate with warm temperatures year-round. May marks the beginning of the rainy season and sits in Lagos's warm period, when daily highs typically range from 28 to 30°C. A YES resolution—meaning the highest temperature stays at 27°C or below—would represent an unusually cool day for Lagos in May, roughly 1-3 degrees below historical averages. The 1% YES odds reflect near-total trader conviction that May 2's high temperature will exceed 27°C, likely by a meaningful margin. This extremely low price suggests traders have high confidence in the pattern of warm May weather in Lagos. The odds trajectory has likely been shaped by historical temperature data, seasonal patterns, and real-time weather forecasts for May 2. Resolution will be based on the official highest temperature recorded in Lagos throughout May 2 local time, making this a straightforward factual market with minimal ambiguity.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Lagos's tropical maritime climate is characterized by consistent warm temperatures throughout the year, with May representing the onset of the monsoon season and a period of atmospheric transition. The city's proximity to the Atlantic Ocean helps moderate temperature extremes while also contributing to high humidity and frequent afternoon thunderstorms. Historical climate data spanning the past three decades shows that Lagos in May rarely experiences daily highs below 28°C, with the vast majority of May 2nds recording peaks between 28-30°C. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea reach approximately 27-28°C by early May, which itself acts as a heat reservoir, preventing significant cooling. For a YES resolution (27°C or below), several unusual atmospheric conditions would need to align simultaneously. An unexpected cold front moving down from the Sahara region, while theoretically possible in May, would be a genuine anomaly—such systems are far more common in dry-season months like December through February. Alternatively, extensive cloud cover and heavy rainfall from early monsoon activity might reduce solar heating and peak temperatures, though typically such rainy-day conditions in Lagos produce highs in the upper 27s rather than clearly at or below the threshold. A severe weather disruption or an unprecedented atmospheric pattern would be necessary for a definitive YES outcome. The absence of any weather alerts or exceptional forecasts for May 2 further reduces the YES probability. The NO scenario, priced at 99%, represents the overwhelmingly probable outcome: Lagos experiences typical May weather with daytime highs in the 28-30°C range, consistent with seasonal climatology. Traders betting on NO are essentially backing the established baseline expectation for Lagos in this month and season, grounded in decades of temperature records. Recent West African weather patterns have shown normal seasonal progression with no anomalies that would suggest May 2026 will deviate significantly from historical May averages. Comparable historical May 2nds in Lagos consistently record highs well above the 27°C threshold. The market's 99% NO odds reflect the extremely low conditional probability of a significant deviation from seasonal climate norms on this single date. From a trader's perspective, the 1% YES odds offer minimal expected value unless one possesses specific knowledge of an incoming cold-weather system not yet reflected in published meteorological forecasts. The extreme confidence in NO suggests that market participants are comfortable relying on both climatological averages and available short-term weather predictions, all of which point decisively toward a Lagos maximum temperature in the 28-31°C range during May 2.
What traders watch for
Official Lagos weather forecast through May 2; monitor for unexpected heavy rain or unusual cloud cover patterns
Real-time temperature readings from Nigerian Meteorological Agency official stations throughout May 2 in Lagos
Watch for any cold-air intrusions or unexpected weather anomalies developing over West Africa before May 2
Historical precedent check: past May 2nds in Lagos consistently record highs 28-30°C, reinforcing NO market confidence
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 2, 2026 at midnight UTC based on the highest temperature officially recorded in Lagos, Nigeria throughout May 2 local time. A YES outcome requires the maximum temperature to be 27°C or below; any reading above 27°C resolves as NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
