Los Angeles in early May typically experiences mild late spring weather, with daytime highs generally ranging from 70-78°F. The question asks whether the highest temperature on May 2 will fall within an extremely narrow band of 56-57°F—a temperature that would represent a significant cool-down from seasonal norms and would require unusual meteorological circumstances. Current market odds stand at zero percent, indicating that traders assess this specific outcome as essentially impossible given available forecasts and historical patterns. This reflects strong consensus that May temperatures in Los Angeles simply don't typically dip this low. The market resolves based on the National Weather Service official temperature reading for Los Angeles on May 2, making this a factual, verifiable outcome with no ambiguity.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Los Angeles experiences a Mediterranean climate with mild winters and warm, dry summers. Early May typically represents a transitional period where spring conditions give way to early summer warmth. The average high temperature for May 2 ranges from approximately 72-76°F based on 30-year climate normals, with very little year-to-year variation during this period. The question targets an extraordinarily narrow range of 56-57°F—roughly 15-20 degrees colder than seasonal norms. For Los Angeles to reach such low temperatures would require either an extremely rare and powerful marine layer inversion persisting all day, or an unprecedented incursion of cold air mass from unusual upper-atmospheric dynamics. Factors pushing toward YES would require several exceptional conditions aligning simultaneously. A strong coastal marine layer combined with unusual onshore flow could suppress temperatures, and a late-season storm system or arctic outbreak could theoretically cool the region dramatically. However, such occurrences in early May are vanishingly rare for Los Angeles. Historical records show that temperatures below 60°F in May occur extremely infrequently, typically only during the coolest coastal microclimates or in early morning hours before solar heating. Factors pushing decisively toward NO include the overwhelming seasonal baseline. May 2 falls in a period when solar intensity is increasing, daylight hours are extending, and the jet stream has typically shifted northward, leaving Southern California outside the range of polar cold air advection. The 0% market odds reflect a rational assessment of available meteorological data and seasonal climatology. Current forecasts almost certainly show temperatures well above this range, making the 56-57°F band statistically implausible. Los Angeles recorded its coldest May 2 temperature of 47°F in 1907, but modern climate patterns have shifted warmer overall. No meaningful catalysts could emerge between now and May 2 that would flip this market; the die is already cast by seasonal and atmospheric patterns.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service official May 2 high-temperature reading for Los Angeles determines final market resolution.
Coastal marine layer persistence and strength; strong morning onshore flow could suppress maximum temperatures significantly.
Upper-atmosphere jet stream position and potential for any cold air mass intrusions into Southern California.
Solar radiation intensity and afternoon heating potential; May climate strongly favors well-above-60°F readings.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the National Weather Service official high temperature reading for Los Angeles on May 2. Resolution requires the recorded high to fall precisely within the 56-57°F range.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
