Lucknow, located in northern Uttar Pradesh, experiences pre-monsoon heat in early May. Daily high temperatures typically range from 38–44°C depending on atmospheric conditions. The specific 41°C threshold represents a narrow resolution window: even a 0.1°C variance invalidates the YES outcome. At 1% odds, traders are expressing extreme skepticism that the peak will land exactly on 41°C. The market prices in either significantly higher temperatures driven by seasonal heat intensification, or cooler conditions from early monsoon moisture. This low probability reflects both the inherent difficulty of hitting an exact temperature target and broader trader conviction that actual highs will cluster elsewhere in the typical 40–43°C band. The rapid expiry—May 2, 2026—means current weather data and short-term forecasts dominate the outcome. Historically, Lucknow's May peaks vary widely by year, but hitting a precise 41°C threshold is rare. The $5,520 liquidity and modest 24-hour volume suggest limited retail participation on this specific daily weather outcome.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Lucknow's climate is shaped by continental air masses and pre-monsoon convection mechanisms inherent to northern India. During May, the city experiences the Loo—a persistent, hot, and dry westerly wind pattern that can drive temperatures sharply upward. Typical May highs in Lucknow range from 38 to 44°C, with day-to-day variation driven by soil moisture carryover from the preceding dry season, daytime cloud development, atmospheric pressure systems, and the timing of early monsoon moisture incursions. The 1% odds pricing reflects traders' collective assessment that 41°C is an unlikely boundary—neither a typical mid-range high nor an extreme peak. To hit exactly 41°C on May 2, the day would need to straddle a narrow equilibrium between several competing drivers. High-pressure anticyclones, weak atmospheric instability, and depleted soil moisture could drive peaks above 41°C, sometimes into the 42–44°C range. Conversely, even modest cloud cover, an early monsoonal surge, or convective thunderstorm activity could suppress highs to 38–40°C, missing the 41°C target. Historical records from the India Meteorological Department show that Lucknow's May highs cluster around 40–42°C in typical years, but exact 41°C daily peaks are not the modal outcome—most days deviate by 1–2°C in either direction. The prediction market's 1% odds reflect both this statistical rarity and traders' underlying model expectations for May 2 specifically. No major meteorological forecast anomaly or unusual atmospheric circulation pattern has been publicly highlighted for May 1–2, suggesting traders are anchored to climatological norms and seasonal consensus rather than responding to an unusual signal. Short-range weather forecasting at 24–48 hour horizons improves substantially with near-term satellite and model data, so late-breaking updates from May 1 could shift market odds if a coherent signal emerges. The liquid market allows interested traders to express conviction, though low recent volume suggests most participants are treating this as a low-priority daily outcome.
What traders watch for
May 2 peak temperature recorded by India Meteorological Department's Lucknow station determines resolution; measurement tolerance ±0.5°C.
Early monsoon surge or sustained high-pressure system on May 1–2 could keep highs above or below 41°C.
Historical Lucknow May peaks cluster 40–42°C; exact 41°C outcomes are infrequent, reinforcing market skepticism.
Afternoon thermal maximum timing (typically 14–16h local time) and meteorological station sensor placement affect final recorded high.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on the recorded highest temperature in Lucknow on May 2, 2026, as reported by the India Meteorological Department's official station. YES wins if the peak temperature equals exactly 41°C (standard rounding ±0.5°C); otherwise, NO wins.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
