Lucknow, capital of Uttar Pradesh in northern India, enters peak pre-monsoon heat in early May, when daily highs typically range 40-44 degrees Celsius. This market asks whether May 2's recorded high will be exactly 42 degrees—a value well within seasonal norms but extraordinarily specific to predict. The 1% YES odds reflect a fundamental challenge: precise temperature outcomes depend on exact atmospheric conditions, humidity, and urban heating effects in Lucknow's metropolitan area. Traders assign minimal probability to this exact figure, suggesting they expect the actual high to fall either above or below 42 degrees. Lucknow's May weather is dominated by intense solar radiation and pre-monsoon dry conditions, with occasional dust storms that rapidly shift afternoon temperatures.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Lucknow experiences one of India's most dramatic seasonal temperature swings, transitioning sharply from cool winters into intense summer heat. May sits at the monsoon threshold, when thermal patterns are highly variable and day-to-day weather remains unpredictable. While 42 degrees Celsius falls squarely within Lucknow's typical May high-temperature range—neither unusually extreme nor unusually mild—predicting an exact value is fundamentally different from forecasting a range or threshold. Official temperature measurements reported to the nearest degree rarely align precisely across measurement methodologies, time-of-reading conventions, or different weather stations. This specificity introduces substantial uncertainty beyond pure meteorology into measurement and reporting practices. Factors pushing toward 42 degrees include clear skies with minimal cloud cover, light wind conditions allowing solar radiation to accumulate, and dry pre-monsoon air masses common in early May. A heat low-pressure system moving across northern India could produce such conditions. Conversely, temperatures could exceed 42 degrees through stronger solar intensity deeper into May or Lucknow's urban heat island effect amplifying recorded readings. Temperatures could fall below 42 degrees via unexpected dust storms reducing solar transmission, cloud development, or early monsoon moisture penetrating northward. The 1% odds suggest traders assign substantially higher probability to outcomes either above or below this specific value, viewing 42 degrees as statistically unlikely given inherent weather variability and measurement precision limits.
What traders watch for
Official temperature reading from India Meteorological Department for Lucknow on May 2.
Weather forecast updates from May 1 afternoon showing expected high-temperature range.
Cloud cover, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure on May 2 morning through afternoon.
Heat wave alerts and dust storm warnings issued for northern India May 1-2 period.
Urban humidity and heat island effects in central Lucknow city area at peak heating hours.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on May 2, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on the official highest temperature recorded in Lucknow that calendar day. YES if exactly 42°C, NO for any other recorded value.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
