Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh in northern India, enters late spring in early May with temperatures typically climbing steadily toward summer extremes. The prediction market asks whether the highest temperature on May 2, 2026 will reach exactly 45°C—a threshold just above typical early-May highs for the region. Current market odds at 0% reflect strong trader consensus that Lucknow will not peak at this specific temperature, suggesting expectations of either cooler conditions or readings that exceed 45°C entirely. The market's binary structure on an exact temperature creates inherent precision risk; a reading of 44.9°C or 45.1°C would resolve to NO. Low trading volume ($746 in 24 hours) and modest liquidity indicate limited market participation in this recurring weather event, which may artificially suppress YES odds. Seasonal meteorological patterns show Lucknow's May temperatures typically cluster in the 39–43°C range early in the month, with daily peaks approaching 45°C only in late May or during concentrated heat waves. Recent weather volatility across India's northern plains makes daily temperature predictions inherently uncertain, and the specificity required—exactly 45°C—adds significant forecasting challenge.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Lucknow, located in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in Uttar Pradesh, experiences a humid subtropical monsoon climate characterized by extreme seasonal temperature swings. Early May marks the transition from spring to the pre-monsoon summer season, a period when northern India routinely records some of its highest annual temperatures. Historical meteorological data for Lucknow shows that May typically sees average daily highs in the 39–43°C range early in the month, with late May pushing toward 44–45°C as the region enters peak heat season. The specificity of this market—resolving on exactly 45°C rather than "45°C or above"—introduces a precision threshold that most real-world temperature readings will miss. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts for early May typically expect gradualist warming, with Lucknow's May 2 highs forecast in the 41–44°C band. Factors supporting a YES outcome include an unusually early or intense heat wave, urban heat island effects concentrated in Lucknow's built-up core, clear skies and low humidity allowing maximum solar heating, or offshore wind patterns funneling dry continental air into the Indo-Gangetic region. A deviation from typical seasonal progression could push temperatures to this threshold. Conversely, factors supporting NO include lingering monsoon trough moisture, premature or unusual cloud cover on May 2, wind shifts bringing cooler air masses, or the inherent variability of daily weather making exactly 45°C unlikely despite the plausible range. Historical Lucknow temperature records show that while May regularly approaches 45°C, hitting a precise peak is statistically rarer than exceeding or falling short. The current market odds at 0% signal that traders collectively assess this outcome's probability as vanishingly small, reflecting either accurate seasonal expectation or thin liquidity suppressing YES odds artificially. The $746 24-hour volume suggests few active participants willing to take the contrarian YES bet. Ultimately, the market hinges on real-time May 2 weather in Lucknow—where precision temperature measurement and IMD reporting will determine the binary outcome.
What traders watch for
IMD forecast for May 2 released May 1 evening; expected peak temperature range signals trader likelihood of reaching 45°C threshold
Real-time May 2 afternoon high temperature reading from Lucknow meteorological station or weather data provider determines exact market resolution
Seasonal heat wave or monsoon trough activity across northern India May 1–2; drives temperature regime for the Indo-Gangetic Plain region
Cloud cover, humidity, and atmospheric conditions on May 2; clear sunny skies favor maximum solar heating toward 45°C threshold
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Lucknow's highest temperature on May 2, 2026 reaches exactly 45°C as recorded by the official meteorological station; resolves NO if the peak is below or above 45°C.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
