Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh in northern India, is positioned in a geographic region that experiences some of the country's most extreme summer heat. On May 17, 2026, traders are actively assessing whether the city's daily high temperature will reach exactly 47°C, equivalent to approximately 117°F. Currently trading at 0% odds, this market reflects substantial skepticism among traders that the temperature will hit this precise numerical threshold on the specified date. Temperature data is publicly and objectively verifiable through official India Meteorological Department weather stations, which provides the essential technical foundation for transparent market resolution. The extremely low 0% odds suggest traders collectively believe that conditions prevailing on May 17 are highly unlikely to produce such extreme peak heat, either because temperatures are expected to remain constrained below the 47°C level or because atmospheric drivers will push readings above 47°C rather than align exactly with this specific temperature specification. This market vividly demonstrates how sophisticated prediction markets price deep uncertainty around specific, measurable weather outcomes that can be objectively and unambiguously verified through established institutional meteorological sources.
What factors could move this market?
Lucknow, located in the Indo-Gangetic Plain at approximately 25°N latitude, experiences one of India's most intense summer heat seasons. May is typically the hottest month of the year in this region, with average daily highs ranging from 42–45°C, though readings above 46°C occur in roughly 5–10% of May days in particularly strong heat wave years. A 47°C reading is therefore on the extreme end of the regional temperature distribution but not entirely unprecedented; the city has recorded temperatures in the 47–48°C range during particularly intense heat events that typically occur in conjunction with sustained high-pressure systems and delayed monsoon onset. The exact specification of 47°C in this market creates a uniquely tight resolution criterion compared to typical weather prediction markets. Rather than asking whether the high will exceed a threshold or fall within a range, this market requires an exact-match outcome, which introduces additional technical considerations. Temperatures could reach 46.5°C and round to 47 in some reporting systems, or could peak at 47.4°C and round downward, introducing measurement and reporting ambiguity that traders must evaluate. The market's 0% odds suggest that professional traders believe several alternative scenarios are far more likely: first, that May 17 will experience moderately elevated temperatures in the 45–46°C range, or second, that sustained atmospheric heat will push the high above 47°C (to 47.5°C or higher) due to a particularly strong high-pressure system or other upper-atmospheric drivers amplifying surface heating. Recent climate patterns in northern India have trended toward earlier monsoon onset in recent years and increasingly variable May conditions, with less predictable persistence of sustained heat domes. The Indian Meteorological Department's forecasts, typically issued 5–7 days in advance, will provide the primary prediction signal, though such forecasts inherently provide temperature ranges rather than point estimates. Historical May temperature records for Lucknow extending back decades show substantial year-to-year variability: some May periods feature consistent 44–45°C readings throughout the month, while others experience brief 1–2-day spikes to 47–49°C during intense heat waves coinciding with specific synoptic patterns. The 0% odds reflect the fundamental difficulty of predicting exact temperature outcomes in a complex chaotic system—meteorological forecasts are expressed as ranges and probability distributions, not precise single values. Traders pricing this market at 0% likely interpret the requirement for an exceptionally precise weather outcome as having negligible probability given forecast uncertainty, reporting precision limitations, and the rarity of such exact alignment.
What are traders watching for?
India Meteorological Department's May 17 forecast release; expected high and low ranges for Lucknow
Actual recorded maximum temperature on May 17; verification via official weather stations and IMD data
Monsoon circulation patterns and high-pressure positioning over northern India in mid-May
Atmospheric anomalies or heat wave indices 48–72 hours before resolution date
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if the India Meteorological Department records a highest temperature of exactly 47°C in Lucknow on May 17, 2026. Resolution occurs at market end (2026-05-17T00:00:00Z) using official IMD data.
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