Will Manila's temperature peak at 29°C or below on May 19? Current odds: 2% YES, 98% NO. Prediction market for Manila's daily weather highs.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Manila's prediction market for May 19 resolves based on official recorded high temperature data for the city. The 2% YES odds signal near-total trader conviction that the high will exceed 29°C, suggesting an expectation of 31-34°C. This aligns with Manila's climate seasonality: the Philippines sits in the tropical zone with year-round warmth, and May marks the tail end of the dry season before the southwest monsoon (habagat) establishes. Typical May highs in Metro Manila range from 30-35°C. The 29°C threshold is unusually cool for the season, explaining the extreme 98% NO odds. Weather patterns vary daily due to cloud cover and wind, but historical May data shows sustained heat. Market price movement reflects real-time forecasts and any unexpected weather systems. The low liquidity indicates this is a specialized market for weather prediction enthusiasts and data traders. Resolution occurs using official Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) data or equivalent authoritative records.
Manila's tropical climate is governed by monsoon systems and its equatorial latitude, which generate consistent high temperatures year-round. May represents a critical seasonal transition: the northeast monsoon (amihan) withdraws, and the southwest monsoon (habagat) begins establishing, creating variable atmospheric conditions. Historically, May's average maximum temperature in Manila hovers around 31-32°C, with sub-29°C days occurring only during particularly cloudy or unusually wet afternoons—rare events for a single day's absolute maximum. The 29°C threshold is significantly below the statistical norm, explaining the extreme 2% YES odds. For traders to win YES, the day must experience conditions that suppress daytime heating: sustained dense cloud cover, heavy rain, or an unusual cool-air mass. Scenarios enabling sub-29°C highs are meteorologically possible but infrequent: a tropical cyclone in proximity (bringing clouds and wind), a persistent upper-level trough, or anomalous circulation patterns. Historical May records show that genuinely cool days below 30°C occur fewer than 2-3 days per month, making them statistical outliers. The NO case (98% current odds) reflects baseline expectations: a typical Manila May day with clear-to-partly-cloudy skies, strong solar radiation, minimal cloud obstruction, and sustained daytime heating pushing highs to 31-35°C. Without major disruptive weather systems, the heating signal is highly predictable from season and latitude. Trader conviction in 98% odds suggests data-driven confidence in seasonal climatology and deterministic weather forecasts. Market liquidity ($1,021) and 24-hour volume ($28) are modest, indicating small-scale participation typical of niche daily weather markets. Participants likely include weather enthusiasts, data traders, and those hedging location-specific interests. Resolution uses official daily temperature records from PAGASA or a specified monitoring station.
Market resolves based on official recorded high temperature for Manila on May 19, 2026, published by PAGASA or the designated weather monitoring station. YES wins if maximum temperature is 29°C or below; NO wins if it exceeds 29°C.
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