Will Mexico City's highest temperature be exactly 22°C on May 19, 2026? This live prediction market prices the outcome at just 4% probability, reflecting the difficulty of exact-temperature matching in weather markets. Mexico City, positioned at 2,250 meters elevation in a high-altitude valley, experiences relatively mild and stable temperatures throughout the year. In May, the city typically records afternoon highs between 25 and 27°C, making 22°C a notably below-average result. For the market to resolve YES, specific meteorological conditions must converge: cloud cover, rain, or a strong cold front would suppress daytime highs, while clear skies and typical spring insolation would push temperatures well above 22°C. Historical May weather in Mexico City shows such cool days are infrequent—usually tied to unusual atmospheric patterns rather than normal seasonal progression. The 4% price reflects trader conviction that these cooler conditions are unlikely. With modest liquidity of $1,032 and 24-hour volume at just $63, the market remains thinly traded, leaving room for significant repricing if updated meteorological models shift expectations toward cooler outcomes.
What factors could move this market?
Mexico City's weather patterns are shaped by its geographic position at 2,250 meters above sea level in a high-altitude basin surrounded by mountains, a topology that moderates temperature extremes year-round. The city sits in the subtropical highland climate zone, where May marks the onset of the warm-season monsoon circulation, with increasingly humid air masses and afternoon thunderstorms becoming common. Historically, May daytime highs in Mexico City average 26.5°C, with typical ranges from 23°C on cooler days to 29°C on warmer ones. A 22°C high would fall in the coolest quartile of May temperatures, requiring specific atmospheric conditions. Such cool days typically result from a combination of factors: a slow-moving cold front lingering from spring storm activity, persistent cloud cover blocking solar radiation, or a cyclonic system bringing moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. The last notable May cold snap in Mexico City occurred in 2021, when unseasonably cool and wet weather produced several days with highs in the 20–23°C range following an unusual late-spring frost pattern. Meteorological data from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional shows that exactly 22°C highs appear roughly 3–5 times across a typical May season in the city, but predicting the precise date weeks in advance remains challenging given the complexity of regional circulation patterns. The current 4% price in this market reflects fundamental meteorological uncertainty: while cool May days do occur, betting on an exact temperature value a month out is inherently difficult. Traders would need to anticipate a specific cold front or weather system locking into place on precisely May 19, a feat requiring both skillful forecasting and luck. The market's low volume and tight liquidity suggest limited participant confidence in any direction, with most traders either avoiding the binary risk or holding positions reflecting the genuine 3–5% historical frequency of such cool days. Updated ensemble forecasts from global prediction models (GFS, ECMWF) in early May will be critical to repricing, as model agreement on cool, cloudy conditions would likely push odds upward, while consensus for typical warm-season patterns would reinforce the current low probability.
What are traders watching for?
Late-May meteorological model consensus: If GFS and ECMWF both forecast cool air mass and persistent cloud cover on May 19, odds should reprice upward.
Cold front activity: Any significant spring cold front tracked to reach central Mexico in mid-May could suppress highs toward the 20–23°C range.
Historical analog forecasting: May rainfall and humidity patterns in first two weeks will signal whether unusual cool conditions are emerging.
Temperature precision: Actual high within 1°C of forecast is routine; hitting exactly 22°C requires both forecast skill and natural variability alignment.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Mexico City's recorded high temperature on May 19, 2026 is exactly 22°C per official meteorological data. Resolution occurs at 00:00 UTC on May 19.
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