Mexico City sits at over 2,200 meters elevation in the Valley of Mexico, which moderates temperatures year-round. In early May, the city typically experiences warm afternoons with highs between 25 and 27°C, though mornings remain cool in the 15-17°C range. The specific prediction of exactly 22°C on May 2 reflects the outer edge of typical spring variability—it would require either unseasonably cool conditions or perhaps a weather system bringing clouds and rain to suppress solar heating throughout the day. Current market odds of 0% indicate traders view this exact temperature threshold as highly unlikely given the seasonal norm and the time of year. The market's strong consensus appears to reflect confidence that May 2 highs will exceed this 22°C floor. This assessment aligns with historical May data for Mexico City, where temperatures below the low-to-mid-20s on a given day occur in fewer than 5% of years, typically only during unusual meteorological events like cold fronts or heavy cloud cover persisting through afternoon hours.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Mexico City's unique geography at 2,250 meters elevation in a high-altitude valley creates a temperate climate remarkably stable by tropical standards. While the city sits at roughly 19°N latitude where tropical conditions dominate, the altitude effect reduces temperatures by approximately 6-8°C compared to lower-elevation cities at similar latitudes. May marks the tail end of the dry season (October-May) and the beginning of the rainy season, a transitional period when weather patterns shift from stable to more variable. Historically, May highs in Mexico City average 25-27°C, with the 10th percentile (lowest 10% of days) falling around 20-22°C. For May 2 to reach exactly 22°C as a daily high would require specific atmospheric conditions: either a cold front lingering unusually late into May, or a day dominated by thick cloud cover and persistent precipitation that suppresses solar heating throughout the afternoon. Such events do occur—perhaps once every 2-3 years on any given May date—but hitting a precise single-degree target (22°C, not 21°C or 23°C) adds significant statistical difficulty beyond the underlying meteorological hurdle. The current 0% odds reflect trader assessment that this unlikely scenario is not worth pricing above numerical zero, likely viewing the probability as below 1%. From a meteorological perspective, the first week of May typically sees warming trends as solar angles steepen and dry-season weather patterns dominate. Any cold-air incursion capable of suppressing highs to 22°C would represent a statistically unusual week for early May. Real-world May data from Mexico City's main meteorological station shows that 22°C-or-lower highs do occur sporadically in May, but with overall frequency around 3-5% of May dates, concentrated in early May when cold fronts occasionally push southward from the continental US. The market's complete rejection (0% odds) suggests traders hold strong conviction in above-22°C highs, possibly reflecting late-season seasonal confidence or deliberate underpricing of a low-probability but meteorologically plausible scenario.
What traders watch for
Official Mexico City daily high from the National Meteorological Service on May 2; the market resolves on the single recorded maximum temperature.
Cloud cover and precipitation patterns on May 2; any rain system would suppress solar heating and potentially lower the daily high.
Cold front activity in late April and early May; Arctic air occasionally extends southward into Mexico during late spring transitions.
Time-of-day temperature peak; Mexico City highs typically occur in late afternoon, influenced by solar angle and atmospheric conditions.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Mexico City's recorded daily high temperature on May 2, 2026 is precisely 22°C, according to Mexico's official meteorological data. Resolution is based on the single daily maximum temperature reported by the National Weather Service for that date.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
