Mexico City experiences mild spring weather in early May, with daily highs typically ranging from 25°C to 28°C depending on atmospheric conditions and cloud cover. This market asks whether the official recorded high temperature will be exactly 24°C on May 2, 2026—a precise endpoint that requires the temperature to stay below the usual range. The 0% current odds reflect trader consensus that this specific temperature is unlikely, as Mexico City's elevation (2,250 meters) and seasonal patterns favor warmer May conditions. The market resolves based on official meteorological station data, making it objectively verifiable. Such specific temperature predictions typically trade at lower prices since hitting an exact degree value is inherently difficult compared to broader range predictions.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Mexico City's climate in May is shaped by the transition into the pre-monsoon season, when subtropical high-pressure systems begin strengthening across the region. Historically, the city's daily highs in early May average 26–27°C, with temperatures gradually climbing as the month progresses toward the peak heat of June. A high of exactly 24°C would represent a notably cooler-than-average day, roughly 3 degrees below the seasonal norm. Such conditions could occur if a strong cold front moves through the central Mexican highlands or if unexpected cloud cover and atmospheric instability suppress daytime heating. However, traders pricing this market at 0% odds appear confident that May 2 will not produce such a cool day. The reasoning reflects both climatological likelihood and the inherent difficulty of forecasting exact temperature values: even if a cooler day were to occur, the margin for error is razor-thin. A high of 23°C or 25°C would resolve the market to NO, making the contract essentially a prediction on an unusually precise atmospheric outcome. Recent years' May temperatures in Mexico City have generally remained above 24°C, creating a historical baseline against which traders are anchoring their price. The 0% odds also suggest institutional and casual traders alike see no meaningful catalysts—unexpected weather systems, unusual atmospheric patterns, or documented climate deviations—that would justify a higher probability. For comparison, broader range markets (e.g., "Will the high be between 22–26°C?") would trade at higher odds. The current spread reflects strong conviction that May 2 will follow the typical spring trajectory toward warmer conditions.
What traders watch for
May 2 maximum temperature reading from Mexico City's official meteorological station after local markets close.
Weather forecasts issued 3-5 days before May 2 showing unexpected cool systems or frontal passages into central Mexico.
Recent May weather patterns from 2023–2025, establishing the baseline range for spring temperatures in Mexico City.
Real-time atmospheric pressure and cloud cover data on May 1–2, which drive daily heating efficiency.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on the official high temperature for May 2 recorded by Mexico City's meteorological service. YES if exactly 24°C, NO otherwise.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
