Miami's weather prediction market for May 2 resolves tomorrow at midnight UTC, making this a high-immediacy forecast trade. The 83°F threshold sits at the lower bound of typical early-May temperatures in South Florida. Current odds trading at 0% YES indicate the market has near-zero conviction that Miami's peak temperature will stay at or below this level—traders expect a hot day. This consensus reflects seasonal climatology: early May in Miami typically produces daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, driven by tropical moisture, Atlantic proximity, and intense May sunshine. The city rarely experiences such low peak temperatures during this period unless unusual systems like strong upper-level troughs or rare cool fronts intrude, events the market currently prices as negligible. The 83°F threshold acts as an aggressive floor estimate. Meteorologically, Miami would need significant cloud cover, afternoon thunderstorms, or atypical wind patterns to suppress temperatures to that level. The market's extreme confidence in higher readings underscores how anomalous the YES outcome would be. Resolution occurs via NOAA's official daily high temperature reading for Miami, available by market close on May 2.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Miami exists at the intersection of two major atmospheric influences: the Atlantic Ocean to the east and the Caribbean to the south. By early May, both are warming toward summer conditions, and tropical atmospheric circulation patterns are solidifying. May is part of Florida's transition season, when winter weather systems become increasingly rare and the subtropical high-pressure system strengthens. The city sits at approximately 26°N latitude, placing it firmly in the tropical/subtropical band where sustained warmth is the norm rather than the exception. Early May temperatures in Miami typically range from mid-80s to low 90s Fahrenheit depending on specific atmospheric conditions and time of day. The 83°F threshold in this market is notably low for Miami on May 2. To achieve a high of 83°F or below would require unusual meteorological conditions. A strong upper-level trough bringing cooler air masses southward, a rare spring cold front penetrating to South Florida, or persistent cloud cover and rain throughout the day could suppress temperatures. Thick marine cloud cover or a tropical system stalling over southern Florida might also keep peak temperatures moderated. Conversely, the far more typical May 2 scenario involves clear skies, intense sunshine, high humidity, and steady southeasterly winds advecting warm air from the Atlantic and Caribbean. Afternoon thunderstorms are common but often develop late in the day after peak temperatures have already been reached. The sea-breeze circulation that defines Miami's daily weather cycle typically reaches peak intensity in early afternoon, but this mechanism itself is driven by solar heating and contributes to warm daytime highs rather than moderating them. The market's 0% YES odds reflect rational trader expectations. Weather forecasters and meteorologists build probabilistic models incorporating atmospheric data, historical analogs, and ensemble forecasts. The fact that traders have marked this outcome at near-zero probability suggests confidence in either explicit forecast guidance showing temperatures well above 83°F, or deep conviction in seasonal climatology. Miami's May temperature distribution is heavily weighted toward the 85–92°F range; outcomes below 83°F are statistical outliers. The market's extreme skew toward NO reflects this underlying reality.
What traders watch for
Monitor NOAA Miami official forecast update for May 2 peak temperature released early morning; check for model guidance changes
Track upper-level atmospheric pattern and jet stream position; note any cool air mass or upper-level trough systems affecting region
Watch afternoon thunderstorm timing and intensity; convective development after peak temperature hours could influence final daily high reading
Observe sea-breeze circulation development and Atlantic moisture advection; primary mechanisms driving warm early-May conditions in Miami
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on May 2, 2026 at midnight UTC based on NOAA's official Miami high temperature reading. YES wins if the recorded peak is 83°F or below; NO wins if it exceeds 83°F.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
