Miami's daily high temperature on May 18, 2026 is the subject of this weather prediction market, with traders currently assigning 0% probability to the narrow range of 78-79°F. This market is directly resolvable against National Weather Service official records for Miami. The zero odds indicate strong trader conviction that Miami's maximum temperature will exceed this range—consistent with mid-May weather patterns in South Florida. Historical data shows that high temperatures in Miami during May typically reach the mid-to-upper 80s, with the 30-year average high for mid-May approximately 87°F. The 78-79°F band represents unusually cool conditions for Miami in mid-May, requiring either a significant cold front, cloud cover from tropical moisture, or an unusual upper-atmosphere pattern. Market pricing reflects this seasonal reality, with near-complete confidence that warmer conditions will prevail.
What factors could move this market?
Miami experiences tropical and subtropical weather year-round, with May representing the transition into the hot, humid summer season. Climatological records show that Miami's high temperatures in mid-May typically range between 85°F and 91°F, with the 30-year normal for May 18 approximately 87°F. A high of 78-79°F would be approximately 8-9°F below normal, requiring unusual atmospheric conditions. Several meteorological scenarios could theoretically produce these cooler temperatures: a strong cold front pushing through Florida (uncommon in May), cloud cover and precipitation from a tropical system or sea breeze convergence (possible but seasonal timing is marginal), or an upper-level pattern that suppresses daytime heating. Conversely, factors strongly supporting warmer outcomes include typical May solar radiation intensity, the absence of significant synoptic disturbances, and Miami's urban heat island effect. Recent climate trends show May temperatures in Miami running 2-3°F above long-term averages, further supporting warmer outcomes. The current 0% odds reflect the extremely low probability of this narrow temperature band, indicating traders' near-certain belief that Miami will experience typical-to-warm May weather. This market exemplifies how prediction markets price increasingly narrow outcome ranges: as the specificity of a predicted outcome increases, probability distributions shift to extremes. Historical examination of Miami's May records shows that days with highs in the 78-79°F range are vanishingly rare, occurring less than once per decade on average.
What are traders watching for?
National Weather Service Miami official high temperature recording at midnight UTC May 18, 2026
Any organized tropical system or cold front movement May 15-18 could suppress maximum temperatures
Clear vs. cloudy conditions May 18 will significantly impact solar heating and final temperature
Historical May 18 average high of 87°F provides baseline; 78-79°F requires 8-9°F below-normal deviation
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on the official National Weather Service recorded high temperature for Miami on May 18, 2026. The market settles to YES only if the recorded high temperature falls within the exact 78-79°F range.
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