This market tests a specific narrow temperature band for Miami on May 2, 2026 — a date that falls in late spring when South Florida typically experiences highs in the low-to-mid 80s. The 84-85°F range represents a moderately warm day for this time of year, neither exceptionally hot nor cool. Current trader conviction (0% YES odds) suggests strong confidence the actual high will fall outside this band — either below 84°F or above 85°F. With less than 24 hours until resolution, the market reflects the latest meteorological consensus on what atmospheric conditions Miami will experience. Daily temperature-range markets like this one hinge on precise NWS measurements taken at Miami International Airport's official weather station, making them sensitive to subtle shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, and solar radiation.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Miami's early May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, characterized by increasing heat and moisture as the Atlantic basin warms ahead of hurricane season. Typical May 2 highs in Miami cluster around 80–82°F historically, making the 84–85°F range slightly warmer than the seasonal baseline but not unprecedented. The extreme bearishness on this band (0% odds) likely reflects several convergent factors in the May 2 forecast. First, high-pressure systems dominating South Florida in early May tend to produce steady trades from the east-southeast, which can moderate afternoon peak temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and drawing somewhat cooler air off the Atlantic. Second, South Florida's marine influence — with sea surface temperatures around 76–77°F in early May — acts as a thermal brake on extreme afternoon heating. Third, the narrow 1°F window itself (84–85°F) is inherently unlikely; most daily highs miss narrow bands entirely, clustering instead around ±2–3°F from the modal value. Traders may also be pricing in the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms, which are common in early May and would cap afternoon temperatures. Alternatively, a weak low-pressure trough or Atlantic-sourced cloud field could suppress highs into the upper 70s. Conversely, a strong high-pressure dome with clear skies and light winds could push highs above 85°F. The 0% odds imply the consensus forecast shows Miami trending toward either cooler-than-84 or hotter-than-85, with little probability mass in the narrow zone between.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service official high temperature reading at Miami International Airport on May 2, 2026
Morning forecast models from GFS, HRRR, and NAM showing 12Z and 18Z predictions for the 84-85°F band
Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and Gulf Stream positioning affecting onshore wind patterns
Cloud cover and afternoon convective thunderstorm potential between 2–6 PM local time
High-pressure ridge vs. weak low-pressure system placement over South Florida on May 2
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if the National Weather Service official high temperature for Miami on May 2, 2026 is between 84°F and 85°F inclusive. Resolution is based on the official NWS observation at Miami International Airport.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
