This prediction market asks whether Munich's daily high temperature on May 2, 2026 will be exactly 17°C. At 0% odds for YES, traders express near-universal skepticism about this precise outcome. Munich in early May typically experiences highs between 16°C and 22°C, making any single exact degree a low-probability event due to weather variability and measurement uncertainty. The market reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting temperature to single-degree accuracy. Current atmospheric conditions and European weather patterns suggest warmer conditions are more probable, pushing traders away from the 17°C target. This market resolves based on official Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) measurements from Munich's primary weather station. The extreme lopsidedness toward NO reveals trader conviction that tomorrow's high will diverge meaningfully from 17°C, whether warmer or cooler.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Munich's weather during early May sits at the transition between spring and early summer, characterized by lengthening daylight, increasing solar radiation, and highly variable Atlantic weather systems. Typical daily highs range from 16°C to 22°C, but individual days frequently deviate significantly from climatological norms depending on synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns. Specifying exactly 17°C represents extreme precision in weather forecasting; while three-to-five day forecasts can often predict temperature ranges reasonably well, pinpointing a single daily high within such a narrow band is exponentially more challenging. Factors affecting the outcome include cloud cover timing, wind patterns, soil moisture retention, and microclimatic urban heat island effects around Munich itself. The 0% YES odds suggest traders have converged on the view that 17°C is an unlikely outcome, though this consensus could reflect several different expectations: ensemble forecast models may suggest significantly warmer conditions in the 20–23°C range, cooler conditions below 15°C, or simply that the probabilistic distribution around expected highs is so spread that 17°C falls into a marginalized tail. Recent European weather patterns have favored warmer-than-normal May conditions across central Europe, supporting trader skepticism. Historically, 17°C daily highs in Munich occur less than 10% of the time in May across multi-decade records, yet they remain within the realm of possibility. The absence of any meaningful YES liquidity indicates even weather forecasters or traders using optimistic model scenarios see limited edge betting that direction. This market exemplifies how prediction markets handle extreme precision: as accuracy requirements tighten, odds naturally collapse toward near-zero unless new information emerges.
