May 2, 2026 falls in mid-spring for New York City, a season when daytime temperatures typically range from 60°F to 70°F as the region transitions from cool spring to early summer. This market resolves based on the National Weather Service's official high temperature for New York City on May 2. The 0% odds on the YES side indicate traders are nearly unanimous in expecting the day's high to exceed 51°F—a level that would represent significantly colder-than-seasonal weather. Such a cold threshold is more typical of late March or early April in NYC. The market pricing reflects the strong seasonal warming trend at this time of year, with traders assessing the likelihood of any late-spring cold snap or unexpected weather system that could suppress temperatures into the 40s or below. The current spread and zero YES probability suggest traders perceive minimal risk of a temperature dip to 51°F or lower on May 2.
Deep dive — what moves this market
New York City's spring weather in early May is characterized by rapid warming as the region receives increasingly longer daylight hours and stronger solar heating. Historical climate data for May 2 in NYC typically shows high temperatures averaging around 65°F to 68°F, with record highs reaching into the 80s and record lows in the 30s. The 51°F threshold in this market represents a day that would be substantially cooler than the May seasonal average—roughly 15 to 20 degrees below typical. Such a scenario would require either an unseasonable cold front to push through the Northeast or a persistent high-pressure system bringing Arctic or polar air into the region. In spring, this becomes less common but remains possible, especially if a strong low-pressure system tracking across the continental U.S. drags cooler northern air southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Factors that could push temperatures toward the cold end include a classic late-spring cold front associated with an upper-level trough moving through the region, a displaced polar vortex bringing Arctic air, or a stalled weather pattern that keeps the region under a cold upper-level air mass. Conversely, normal seasonal progression, warm southwesterly winds, and increased solar input typically drive temperatures higher in May. Recent spring weather patterns in 2026 would be relevant context—if the season has been warmer than average, traders might have elevated confidence in continued warmth on May 2. The market's pricing with YES odds at 0% reflects the strong seasonal bias toward warming at this time of year. Traders are essentially saying they see near-zero probability of the specific combination of atmospheric conditions required to suppress the daily high to 51°F or below, representing high confidence in normal or above-normal seasonal temperatures for May 2. From a trading perspective, such extreme odds typically indicate either very strong consensus or thin liquidity. The low trading volume suggests limited market participation, which can amplify price movements if new information emerges. Any significant change to the longer-range forecast—such as a strong cold front prediction from major weather models—could shift trading activity substantially.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service May 2 extended forecast—any cold front predictions could shift trader conviction
Upper-level atmospheric pattern from GFS and NAM models tracking potential cold air intrusions
May 2 market resolves at end of day based on official NYC National Weather Service high temperature
Spring seasonal warming trend—above-average season could increase confidence in temperatures staying above 51°F
Real-time weather developments on May 2 morning—any overnight model changes affect trading
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves on May 2, 2026 based on the National Weather Service's official highest temperature recorded in New York City that day. If the high is 51°F or below, YES wins; if above 51°F, NO wins.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
