New York City's temperature on May 2, 2026 presents a clear, verifiable forecast market for prediction traders. The market asks whether the highest temperature will reach 70°F or above on that date. Traders currently assign just 1% probability to the high reaching 70°F or above, reflecting exceptionally strong conviction that cooler conditions will prevail. Early May typically sees New York City highs ranging from the upper 50s to the mid-70s as spring transitions gradually into early summer. The extremely low odds suggest that market participants are pricing in a substantial cold pattern or weak solar heating for May 2. This daily recurring market resolves based on the official high temperature reading from meteorological sources, making it a straightforward way to assess collective trader expectations against real weather outcomes. The inverted 99-to-1 odds structure indicates high confidence in sub-70°F conditions, likely driven by current forecast models showing persistent cloud cover, a cold air mass positioned overhead, or a weak pressure system moving through the region.
Deep dive — what moves this market
New York City's May 2 temperature market operates within the context of spring seasonal dynamics. Early May represents a transition period in the Northeast, where tropical warm air masses frequently collide with retreating Arctic systems, creating variable daily weather patterns. A high temperature of 70°F represents a meaningful threshold—roughly the boundary between mild spring conditions and the warmer weather typical of late May and early summer. At 1% odds for YES, traders are expressing exceptionally high confidence that May 2 will trend cooler than this benchmark. This conviction likely stems from ensemble forecast models showing either persistent cloud cover limiting solar heating potential, an upper-level trough supporting cool northerly flow, or a surface low-pressure system bringing Canadian air into the Northeast corridor. Factors that could push temperatures above 70°F include a warm front passage, building surface high pressure from the south, clear sunny skies maximizing afternoon heating, or a well-mixed convective boundary layer. Conversely, factors supporting below-70°F readings include upper-level troughs positioned overhead, a jet stream that channels Arctic air southward, sustained cloud cover and precipitation limiting solar radiation, or northerly winds that advect cool air masses. Historically, May 2 temperatures in New York City vary widely depending on jet stream phase and seasonal weather patterns. The current 1% odds reflect not just a simple forecast consensus but trader conviction that competing warm systems are unlikely to dominate May 2's weather, while cool influences are well-positioned to control the afternoon high. The market's modest liquidity of $9,226 suggests active interest despite the extreme pricing, with traders either locking in strong convictions or actively challenging consensus.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service morning forecast and official high-temperature reading released May 2; maximum typically occurs 2–4 PM local time.
Upper-level trough positioning and depth; deeper troughs support cooler conditions across the Northeast.
Surface high- or low-pressure system movement; high pressure brings clear skies and warmth; low pressure supports clouds and cool air.
Cloud cover and precipitation forecast; overcast conditions and rain significantly reduce afternoon heating potential.
Wind direction and cold air advection; northerly or northwesterly flow transports cooler Canadian air into the region.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if the highest temperature recorded in New York City on May 2, 2026 reaches 70°F or above; NO if the high is below 70°F, based on official meteorological data from NOAA or the National Weather Service.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
