On May 18, 2026, the highest temperature in New York City will be recorded at the primary weather station (Central Park). This market resolves YES only if that high falls between 70-71°F (inclusive). Current YES odds at 0% indicate traders broadly expect the actual high to fall outside this precise band—either warmer or cooler. Mid-May in New York typically sees highs in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, making a 70-71°F outcome below seasonal norms. For the high to land in this narrow band, weather patterns would need to suppress typical spring warmth, either through a lingering cool air mass, persistent cloud cover, or an unexpected system. The market's extreme pricing reflects the statistical difficulty of hitting a single-degree target band, combined with forecast or seasonal data pointing elsewhere.
What factors could move this market?
New York City's weather in mid-May typically features the full transition into late spring, with climatological highs around 75-77°F and overnight lows in the mid-50s Fahrenheit. A high of 70-71°F sits below this normal range, requiring either an active cold pattern, cloud-locked conditions that prevent solar heating, or the tail end of a departing low-pressure system. Historical records for May 18 in New York show considerable variability—some years have seen highs in the mid-60s during cool, wet periods, while warmer years have reached the low 80s. Most years cluster around 75°F on this date. The zero percent YES odds reflect a critical market insight: either the latest National Weather Service forecast is calling for conditions significantly away from this band, or traders recognize that hitting a single-degree range is a statistical extreme given typical weather forecasting uncertainty (typically ±2-4°F for days-in-advance predictions). For YES traders to profit, an unlikely constellation would need to occur—either an advancing cold front that keeps temperatures suppressed while the sun provides just enough heating to reach 70-71°F, or a day of intermittent clouds and occasional rain that prevents temperatures from climbing above 71°F or falling below 70°F. The baseline NO case is simply seasonal—May 18 resolves somewhere in the typical 74-78°F range, well outside the market band. The $9,307 liquidity and $990 24-hour volume suggest limited speculative interest, typical for weather markets with extreme probability skews. Traders have priced this band as a low-conviction edge or mathematical curiosity rather than a viable outcome.
What are traders watching for?
National Weather Service forecast issued morning of May 18; predicted high temperature becomes key reference point
Central Park official high temperature reading; sole source for market resolution by end of May 18
Any weather system overnight May 17-18 (cold front, rain, cloud cover) that could suppress afternoon heating
Real-time temperature progression through afternoon; market likelihood if high approaches 70-71°F boundary
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if the highest temperature recorded at Central Park on May 18, 2026 falls between 70-71°F inclusive; otherwise NO. Official NWS data is the resolution source.
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